Why Zack Snyder Is Wrong About Rebel Moon’s $1.6 Billion Box Office Equivalent

Zack Snyder, director of Rebel Moon, recently claimed that his movie would have made about $1.6 billion at the box office if it had a theatrical release, but that claim was likely misinformed. Rebel Moon received a mixed reception at its release, with critics giving it just 21% on Rotten Tomatoes, and audiences only leaving positive reviews 58% of the time. Despite the negative reviews, Rebel Moon received extensive viewership according to streaming data. Snyder’s claims were based on that data, but he made a few errors in his calculations.

His claim came when Snyder compared Rebel Moon to Barbie, as he believed that, based on Netflix’s viewership data, more people had seen his movie. He then speculated that if Rebel Moon had been released in theaters, it would have received the same viewership as on Netflix and earned over $1.6 billion compared to Barbie‘s $1.446 billion. Snyder’s claim was misguided, though, and he misunderstood some of the differences between streaming and theatrical releases when he made it.

Zack Snyder’s Rebel Moon Box Office Comments Ignore The Realities Of Streaming vs. Theatrical

Using streaming data as evidence of hypothetical box office success poses a problem due to the nature of the two formats. Movies are much less likely to receive wide theatrical viewership in the age of streaming because they’re far more expensive than a subscription. They’re also more inconvenient than streaming releases, as viewers have to physically go to the theater, as compared to watching from the comfort of home. Streaming is also a much more accessible format to view movies in, as it removes the physical barriers of the theater while also allowing for a customizable experience through subtitles and language selections.

All of those factors make streaming more likely to reach a wider audience than theatrical releases, and Snyder’s calculations failed to account for the differences. Though Rebel Moon received a large viewership on Netflix, that success wouldn’t necessarily translate to the box office for the reasons already listed. Streaming is a much smaller commitment than buying a movie ticket, which likely worked in Rebel Moon‘s favor. Snyder’s claim misinterpreted the relationship between streamers and theaters, and assumed that the two formats were interchangable, which they are not. Even his evidence, based on Netflix’s data, fails to support his claim.

Netflix’s Approach To Data Means Zack Snyder’s Rebel Moon Claim Is Hard To Support

A crucial part of Snyder’s calculations came from an assumption he made: that each screening was seen by two people. There is no way to verify that claim, as many people watch Netflix alone, and it’s very unlikely that the viewership data for Rebel Moon can accurately be doubled based on that assumption. Netflix closely guards its viewership data, only releasing those aspects it deems worthy of releasing. That makes it difficult to determine some of the specifics about the data, and therefore hard to verify Snyder’s claim.

The main reason that claim is so hard to support is that the data only factors in how many viewers put the movie on, not how many finished it. Viewers who turned Rebel Moon on for a few minutes and turned it off are counted the same as those who watched the whole movie through. Many of those could have included people who were on the fence about the movie as well, and they likely wouldn’t have bought a ticket in theaters. While the viewership data isn’t a perfect way to predict Rebel Moon‘s hypothetical box office earnings, it also doesn’t mean the movie would have flopped.

Would Rebel Moon Have Been A Box Office Success?

Snyder’s claim about Rebel Moon‘s hypothetical box office success likely wasn’t accurate, but that doesn’t mean that it wouldn’t have found success at the box office. Rebel Moon had a lot of things going for it that could have propelled it to success. It had some stunning visuals, Zack Snyder’s name attached, which brings along his most devoted followers, and Rebel Moon‘s impressive cast of characters. The proper release date, such as at the holiday season, also would have given it some longevity in theaters. There is more than enough reason to claim that Rebel Moon would have done fairly well with a theatrical release.

Snyder’s metric of $1.6 billion is much harder to support, though. Based on Rebel Moon‘s budget of $166 million split between both parts, and its less than stellar reviews, it seems unlikely that it could have been such a huge hit. Only two movies in 2023, Barbie and The Super Mario Bros. Movie, crossed the $1 billion threshold, and both of them sported a much larger budget and better reviews than Rebel Moon. Based on everything Rebel Moon brought to the table, and everything working against it, it’s likely that the movie would have been successful, but there was almost no chance of it making $1.6 billion.

Rebel Moon Did Succeed, But Shouldn’t Be Compared To Barbie

By many metrics, Rebel Moon was already a success for both Netflix and Snyder. Rebel Moon was viewed extensively, with almost a billion viewership minutes in the first week after its release. It also surpassed Army of the Dead, Snyder’s last Netflix release, at its peak viewership. Snyder doesn’t need hypothetical box office statistics to justify Rebel Moon, it can already stand on its own. One area it can’t stand up in, however, is in comparison to Barbie.

By almost every measurement, including review scores, earnings, viewership, and more, Barbie beat out Rebel Moon. Perhaps the best example of the difference in the films’ receptions comes in the form of awards. Barbie won over 175 awards and received over 400 nominations, including eight Oscar nominations. Rebel Moon, on the other hand, won just two awards in total. Barbie was also a cultural event with a huge legacy behind it, while Rebel Moon has had a much less lasting impact. Even throwing out Barbie‘s impressive box office revenue, Rebel Moon still can’t hold a candle to its success.

Even comparing the two films to each other in the first place is a lesson in futility. Barbie was a satirical, dramatic investigation of feminism and other culturally significant topics. Rebel Moon was an action-packed science fiction adventure. They served wildly different purposes, and pitting them against each other isn’t a fair comparison. Rebel Moon was successful in its own right, just not as extensively as Zack Snyder claimed, and not nearly as much as Barbie was.