Top Gun 2 has made an incredible debut at the box office, proving the biggest concerns that it shared with Avatar 2 wrong. With many studios attempting to compete with major movie franchises like Marvel, Star Wars, and the DCEU, one of the go-to solutions has been to return to the classics. After many years between the originals, iconic films like Ghostbusters, Jurassic Park, and even Scream have received incredibly successful revivals in recent years, with the sequels bringing back classic legacy characters to support new generations within the franchises.
Joining this trend in 2022 are Top Gun (1986) and James Cameron’s Avatar (2009), both of which have finally received their long-awaited sequels. Top Gun: Maverick sees the return of Tom Cruise as US Navy pilot Pete “Maverick” Mitchell, who is now training a new generation of fighter pilot recruits, including the son of his late best friend, Goose. While Disney has been less clear about the plot of Avatar: The Way of Water, the first trailer revealed that Jake Sully (Sam Worthington) and Neytiri (Zoe Saldana) are returning with a family of their own, where they now face threats from both the humans and Na’vi people in new underwater regions of Pandora.
While the success of Avatar 2 won’t be decided until it premieres in December 2022, Disney already has the future of the franchise planned out well in advance. James Cameron’s Avatar 3, 4, and 5 are already set to premiere in 2024, 2026, and 2028, respectively. Even though plans for Top Gun 3 aren’t immediate at Paramount, the remarkable achievements of the film at the box office suggest it would be too big of an opportunity to pass up in the age of Marvel’s theatrical domination. Considering how well the long-delayed Top Gun 2 has performed at the box office, fears of the Avatar franchise biting off more than it can chew don’t seem to hold water any longer.
Top Gun 2 & Avatar 2 Shared A Massive Sequel Criticism
Both Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar: The Way of Water had been in development for over a decade before their 2022 premieres, which led many to dismiss the sequels as having missed the train. Top Gun 2 was released 36 years after the original, with the movie being criticized early on for interest in the subject matter waning over the years. After 10 years in developmental hell, Top Gun 2 almost seemed like a lost cause for fans of the original, which was only exacerbated by its numerous delays due to the COVID-19 pandemic. While Top Gun is a certified cult classic that is still regarded highly by many (despite its mixed critical response), there were early worries that its cult status still wouldn’t be enough to draw in massive audiences.
This same concern has been shared by Avatar: The Way of Water, though at a much more pronounced level due to its less beloved legacy. While James Cameron’s Avatar remains the highest-grossing film of all time, it doesn’t share the same cult status as Top Gun, which has led to far more criticisms of its sequel being delayed too long to be successful. Interest in Avatar was arguably at its peak in 2010 when the sequel was first announced, but now that 13 years have passed, Avatar 2 has had to work much harder to revive audience investment in the franchise. Considering Avatar 2’s biggest competition is with the 2009 original, which stands as the highest-grossing movie of all time at nearly $3 billion worldwide, the measurements for success are much higher than that of the typical legacy sequel. Both Avatar 2 and Top Gun 2 had been so long in the making that anything less of a massive theatrical debut would be considered a failure. However, the latter film’s box office performance proves these criticisms have been in vain.
Top Gun 2’s Box Office Success Has Smashed Predictions
Top Gun 2 received the largest film opening ever with showings in 4,732 theaters during its 2022 Memorial Day weekend premiere, which no doubt increased expectations of its box office debut. The domestic box office projections of Top Gun 2 ranged from $70 million to $100 million, with some high estimates at $130 million. Opening alongside The Bob’s Burgers Movie, Top Gun 2 didn’t have too high of competition, helping the Paramount film to smash predictions of its box office haul. Top Gun 2 recorded the highest box office premiere of any Tom Cruise movie and the biggest opening of all time for Memorial Day weekend.
The film’s four-day opening weekend earned over $160 million at the box office, a massive feat for Paramount as the studio managed to bring back audience demographics that had long been lacking in theaters. At the time of writing, the critically acclaimed Top Gun: Maverick boasts a worldwide box office performance of more than $330 million. The original Top Gun managed to bring in $357.3 million, with the legacy sequel projected to far surpass the 1986 film and perhaps even close in on the coveted $1 billion mark. So far, Top Gun: Maverick is the highest-grossing 2022 movie outside of the superhero genre.
Top Gun 2 Proves Avatar 2 Isn’t Coming Too Late
The hype over Top Gun 2 was criticized to have waned too much over the years for it to be a massive success, but the sequel’s impressive box office numbers prove this wrong. Since concerns over Avatar 2’s box office performance have largely cited a loss of interest over its 13-year delay, Top Gun 2 beating the odds after 36 years suggests the long gap between the films won’t impact its success. Top Gun: Maverick has not only beaten the original’s box office by a staggering amount, but it also debuted to significantly higher praise by critics and audiences alike.
Avatar: The Way of Water isn’t likely to break the original’s box office record, but it still has the opportunity to bring back audiences for a massive showing if its premise can improve upon that of the 2009 movie. While underestimating the power of director James Cameron at the box office is already a mistake, Top Gun 2’s commercial performance makes the case that concerns over diminished interest won’t be a major factor in whether Avatar‘s sequel succeeds. If Avatar 2 should underperform at the box office, it won’t be due to its late arrival, but rather that it isn’t able to match up to the novelty or groundbreaking visuals of the original.
Key Release Dates
Avatar 2: The Way of Water
Release Date:2022-12-16
