Top Gun 2 vs. Mission Impossible 7: Which Tom Cruise Movie Will Be Bigger?

Tom Cruise has a pair of blockbuster sequels on the way as the actor is adding to both the Top Gun and Mission: Impossible franchises, but which will be bigger, Top Gun: Maverick or Mission: Impossible 7? Seemingly-ageless action hero Tom Cruise has not one, but two huge sequels on the way for a pair of massive franchises. Top Gun‘s long-awaited sequel will finally be arriving in theatres next year alongside the seventh installment of the long-running spy thriller series Mission Impossible. Few actors have the box office sway of Cruise, but it’s rare for the actor to compete with himself.

Decades have passed since the release of the original Top Gun, meaning fans will be eager to see how the franchise has transformed. Meanwhile, Cruise’s iconic spy series has regularly released new installments, with Mission: Impossible 6 not only linking back to the first Mission: Impossible film but also proving more popular than all of its predecessors. As such, it’s difficult to guess whether Top Gun 2 or Mission: Impossible 7 will turn out to be the bigger success.

With Top Gun 2 positing itself as a legacy sequel, there’s a whole new cast to get viewers hyped, but the Mission: Impossible franchise has grown in strength and success in its last few outings, winning over audiences and critics alike as the popularity of the series only grows with age. It’s hard to know for certain, but with the franchise’s growing reputation for quality action and much of the cast returning for Mission: Impossible 7, it looks more and more likely that the spy thriller will win over more viewers than the overdue Top Gun 2. There are few cinematic brands as reliable as the Mission: Impossible series and, with only one predecessor in its history, it will be hard for Top Gun 2 to match that draw for audiences.

Top Gun Maverick Is A Long-Awaited Sequel

To be fair to the film, Top Gun 2 does have anticipation in its corner. The film has been in production since 2010, but it has thirty-five years or waiting behind it, so there’s inevitably hype for the follow-up, even if not all Top Gun‘s original cast is returning. It’s also worth noting that the original film was a huge success at the box office upon its 1986 release and went on to earn itself an iconic place in action cinema history, inspiring countless homages (and rip-offs) in the decades since. However, the first film in the series also had iconic action director Tony Scott at the helm, an underrated auteur who could make the simplest scenes look dynamic and exciting. Unfortunately, the director passed away during Top Gun 2‘s length production process, meaning the movie may suffer for the absence of his talent. Sure newcomer Joseph Kosinski directed the earlier Cruise hit Oblivion, but that’s not much of a CV compared to his predecessor’s legendary The Last Boy Scout, True Romance, Crimson Tide run.

Mission: Impossible 7 Is Following On From The Franchise’s Biggest Movie

In contrast to Top Gun 2‘s long-delayed production, Mission: Impossible 7 welcomes the return of reliable action director and frequent Cruise collaborator Christopher McQuarrie. The mind behind 2000’s underrated crime comedy The Way of the Gun, McQuarrie has more recently been seen directing Jack Reacher, Mission: Impossible: Rogue Nation, and Mission: Impossible – Fallout. Not only were all three collaborations hits with both critics and fans, but Fallout also managed to become both Cruise’s biggest financial success to date and the best-reviewed film in the franchise so far. That’s despite the likes of Brian DePalma, John Woo, and JJ Abrams serving as McQuarrie’s predecessors behind the camera. The odds aren’t looking too hot for Top Gun 2 in that respect.

Top Gun 2 Could Change Cruise’s Screen Career

Then again, terrible odds are just what Maverick thrives on. Despite the likelihood that Mission: Impossible 7 is a far safer investment at the box office, projects like Top Gun 2 and further Top Gun sequels could be better for Cruise going forward. The actor is getting on years despite what his death-defying stunts would have audiences believe, and it could be good for Cruise to considering retiring into more mentorship-focused roles like that of  Top Gun 2‘s Maverick, rather than remaining front and center as he nears his sixties. That said, the likes of Liam Neeson have proven that audiences aren’t averse to an aging action star (unless he’s Sylvester Stallone, although his box office struggles probably has more to do with Rambo: Last Blood being a terrible film than ageism). So while Cruise could prove a perfect mentor for the young recruits of Top Gun 2 and beyond, there’s no reason to believe that the actor is ready to give up his leading man status in favor of aging gracefully any time soon. Provided he can still carry that sort of responsibility, there’s no reason to doubt Mission: Impossible 7‘s potential to kick the franchise on further.

Mission: Impossible 7 Will Be Bigger Than Top Gun 2

With even pro-Top Gun 2 arguments suggesting it will be great because of Cruise’s Mission: Impossible stuntwork, it looks likely that the seventh film will beat Top Gun 2 with both critics and audiences. Despite the long-awaited legacy sequel’s potential, Mission: Impossible 7 should prove the bigger Cruise vehicle in 2021. While viewers are eager to see how the Top Gun franchise has been changed over the years, the promise of another Mission: Impossible won’t bring with it any such risky and potentially disastrous alterations.

If there’s one thing that the consistently impressive box office receipts of franchises like Fast & Furious films can attest to, it’s the fact that consistency always beats out new arrivals. And while Top Gun 2 may be following a previous hit, it is a success which is a distant memory for many filmgoers. In comparison, Fallout‘s success ensures that the Mission: Impossible franchise has remained fresh and dynamic in the eyes of most viewers. Cruise’s high-lying franchise isn’t doomed, as Top Gun 2‘s later release date may be good news for the film and it’s always possible that the sequel will surprise everyone, prompting a revival of the franchise if it proves to be a huge hit. But for now, there’s no better bet than Ethan Hunt continuing Mission: Impossible‘s impressive dominance at the worldwide box office with Mission: Impossible 7.