The 94th Academy Awards is set to air on March 27th and there’s been plenty of buzz about this year’s Best Picture nominees. With the shortlist including Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog, Denis Villeneuve’s epic reimagining of Dune, and Kenneth Branagh’s coming of age tale Belfast, competition appears to be tough.
For those wanting insider knowledge on the most likely winner, GoldDerby allows fans to view predictions based on experts’ opinions, user votes, or a combination of the two. While filmgoers might assume that it’s a tight race, based solely on expert opinions, the best picture winner actually seems quite clear.
Nightmare Alley
According to GoldDerby, Nightmare Alley is the least likely movie to win Best Picture. Its total odds of winning are 14/1, with no experts voting on the movie. Its score is even low amongst user votes, leaving it at only 6 votes.
Nightmare Alley follows con artist Carlisle as he makes his way into a traveling circus with a massive scheme to make money. Problems arise when the psychologist he asked to help him ends up becoming his opponent. Nightmare Alley blends classic noir and horror, making it a wildly unique experience but, despite this, it’s odds of winning are low.
Don’t Look Up
Don’t Look Up‘s odds of winning are currently at 12/1, for both experts and users. It has 27 user votes, but no expert votes. It has a little more votes from users on the site than Nightmare Alley, but the lack of experts backing this film puts it in 9th place, with only slightly better odds than Nightmare Alley.
Don’t Look Up follows two astronomers that discover a massive comet is coming to hit the earth, with the capability of destroying the whole planet. Don’t Look Up is a star-studded movie that critics hated, which makes it surprising that it’s even in the running for an Oscar.
Drive My Car
Drive My Car has odds of 21/2. It has a total of 57 user votes, but it’s lacking in expert votes. Considering no experts voted on this film, it’s placed in eighth place on the GoldDerby ranking.
Drive My Car is about an older, widowed actor who requires a new chauffeur. His mechanic directs him to a 20-year-old girl, with who the actor then forms a relationship. Drive My Car is the only foreign language film nominated for Best Picture this year, which certainly makes it stand out but it sadly may not clinch the win.
Licorice Pizza
According to GoldDerby, Licorice Pizza‘s total odds are 19/2, but based only on experts it’s 10/1. Even though Licorice Pizza has 0 expert votes and only 26 user votes, which is less than the films ranked lower, it’s still placed at seventh place on the GoldDerby site.
Licorice Pizza is a romantic drama following Alana Kane and Gary Valentine as they fall in love in the 1970s. It can also be considered a coming of age, as the viewer gets to watch the two grow up. Many fans claim Licorice Pizza is Paul Thomas Anderson’s best movie thanks to its well-written story and a great cast.
King Richard
Will Smith’s latest film, King Richard, has odds standing at 9/1 for both experts and users. It doesn’t have any expert votes, but it has 37 user votes. GoldDerby has the film in sixth place, putting it at slightly better odds than the others.
King Richard is based on the true story of Serena and Venus Williams, and their father Richard Williams who pushed them to become successful tennis players against all odds. This is an inspirational story about the two sisters with many memorable quotes, and exceptional performances from the cast.
Dune
The latest adaptation of Frank Herbert’s sci-fi epic Dune, directed by Denis Villeneuve, has odds at 17/2. Despite the lack of expert votes, this movie has more user votes than any of the other movies that also have 0 expert votes. Dune has 63 user votes, putting it in fifth place.
Dune is an epic space war, following Paul Atreides after his family gets involved in the war over a resource called spice. Similar to many science fiction pictures based on books, Paul is deemed the chosen one that’s destined to be a savior. Many fans are expecting Dune to sweep the 2022 Oscars due to its many nominations which bodes well for the film featuring Timothée Chalamet and Zendaya.
West Side Story
West Side Story‘s odds are at 8/1 and it’s ranked fourth place based on only experts’ opinions. It has two expert votes and 147 user votes. Interestingly enough, with the votes combined, West Side Story sits at third place in the likelihood of winning.
West Side Story follows Maria and Tony, from the rival gangs the Sharks and Jets as the two fall in love with each other. Naturally, their families don’t want the two together and their relationship starts a war between the gangs. Its nomination is impressive considering it’s a remake, but there are many ways West Side Story improves upon the original.
Belfast
Belfast‘s odds of winning 8/1 based on experts, but its total votes are 15/2. Belfast has 4 expert votes, but 305 user votes. It sits at third place based on only experts, but if the votes are combined Belfast actually ends up in second place.
Belfast takes place in the 1960s and is based on true events from Kenneth Branagh’s childhood. This is a coming-of-age story about a young boy making his way into adulthood during The Troubles in Ireland. A powerful film, it may just be eclipsed by its fellow nominees.
CODA
The expert odds for CODA taking the win are 15/2, but its total odds are 8/1. CODA has 4 expert votes and 291 user votes. According to just the experts, this film is in second place. With expert and user votes combined, CODA goes down to fourth place.
CODA, which stands for a child of deaf adults, follows Ruby, who is the only hearing member of her family. She finds herself juggling responsibilities as she has to work to help her family’s business success, but she also finds a passion for choir and a growing interest in her duet partner. The moving story and powerful performances up its chances of winning.
The Power of the Dog
The Power of the Dog is ranked most likely to win the Best Picture Oscar, based on both experts and users. Its expert odds are 13/2 and its total odds are 6/1. The Power of the Dog has 14 expert votes and 4631 user votes, far more than any of its competitors, which makes it seem like this just might be the winner.
The Power of the Dog is a western drama following two brothers when one of them comes home with a new wife and son. Based on the 1967 novel of the same name by Thomas Savage, The Power of the Dog is based on the true events in the author’s life. The multi-layered story is the current favorite to win and with a riveting exploration of themes including revenge, masculinity, and sexuality, it’s clear to see why.
