Tenet & Mulan Can Succeed When Theaters First Reopen Because Of Fewer Releases

Both Tenet and Mulan can succeed at the box office when theaters first reopen thanks to there being fewer releases. Christopher Nolan’s new sci-fi film is one of the few Summer 2020 movies to hold onto its release date throughout the coronavirus pandemic, even as other movies have been rescheduled or gone directly to streaming. The hope is Tenet will be the first major tentpole to play when theaters reopen on July 17, and it’s something Nolan himself has been actively campaigning for. Disney is similarly hoping to launch its delayed Mulan remake a week after that, having recently reaffirmed its intention to stick to this plan.

However, there are a lot of factors that could prevent this from happening. Studies show many people are reluctant to attend mass public gathers (like movie theater screenings) in the wake of the pandemic, and those screenings which do take place will definitely cap attendance for social distancing purposes. That, coupled with the fact major markets like Los Angeles might remain on lockdown until the end of July, means Tenet and Mulan would both have a harder time succeeding at the box office. And yet, this isn’t necessarily the deal-breaker it might seem to be.

According to THR‘s sources, it’s not unusual for 50% of seats in U.S. theaters to be empty during the weekends and (as was recently noted by Disney CEO Bob Chapek) often 75% empty from Monday through Friday, even under normal circumstances. Combined with the fact so few movies are now slated to open between July and August, this means films like Tenet and Mulan can play in as many theaters as they would’ve prior to the pandemic, but on far more screens to adjust for the social distancing measures in place, and still achieve a solid turnout at the box office. They would also likely see smaller drop-offs in the weeks that follow due to this same lack of competition.

Whichever way you look at it, Warner Bros. and Disney have a tough call to make when it comes to both Tenet and Mulan. While these movies could theoretically be successful on their current dates in July while still abiding by the new health and safety guidelines, there are just as many (or more) reasons to delay them. Many people feel scheduling movies for August is equally over-optimistic right now. For example, Wonder Woman 1984 costar Connie Nielsen isn’t convinced its August 14 date is doable, and Disney’s decision to reschedule New Mutants for August 28 has mostly been derided online so far.

Thankfully, WB and Disney will have to put an end to all this speculation sooner than later. The former is expected to make a final decision about Tenet‘s release date in the immediate future, in order to ensure it has enough time to promote the movie ahead of time. Disney, of course, will have to do the same if it decides to go ahead and unveil Mulan a week after. And as much as cinephiles are excited to get back to seeing films in theaters (and both studios and theater chains are anxious to resume business operations), health and safety are ultimately the top priorities which should inform these decisions.