Sonic the Hedgehog 3 is following two financially successful movies, but there’s now a lot of weight on the threequel’s shoulders to perform better than Sonic the Hedgehog 2’s box office performance. After a false start with the trailer that featured the ghastly-looking CGI Sonic, which oddly had very human features and didn’t remotely resemble the iconic SEGA mascot, Paramount delivered an entertaining popcorn flick with 2020’s Sonic the Hedgehog. The CGI was corrected, the story and characters were faithful to the source material, and Jim Carrey’s performance as Dr. Robotnik marked a strong comeback.
The 2020 movie made a strong $302 million worldwide with a budget of $90 million. 2022’s Sonic the Hedgehog 2 was also well received and had one of the strongest Rotten Tomatoes scores for a video game movie, 69%. The sequel outperformed its predecessor too, making $405 million worldwide. However, with the upcoming Sonic the Hedgehog 3 in production, there’s now a lot of pressure on the studio for the threequel to become way more successful than its predecessors, as The Super Mario Bros. Movie’s $1.3 billion gross has put the SEGA franchise to shame.
The Super Mario Bros. Movie Made The Sonic Movies’ Box Office Look Worse
Before the video game movie was dethroned by Barbie, The Super Mario Bros. movie was the highest-grossing film of 2023, and it’s now unlikely that anything will take away its second place. Given that the Mario video games and the Sonic games have always been in competition with each other and there has been a long-running debate between SEGA and Nintendo fans over which mascot is better: Mario or Sonic, it’s impossible not to compare the movies. That is especially the case given that the movies are so tonally similar, as they are both family-oriented adventures.
As a result, the success of The Super Mario Bros. Movie has made the Paramount franchise look bad. In total, the two Sonic the Hedgehog movies have made a combined $707 million, which is a great result until it’s compared to the 2023 release. The Mario movie franchise has already made almost double the Sonic the Hedgehog series at the box office with just one film. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 was dealing with tougher box office competition, as it went head-to-head against Ambulance and Everything Everywhere All at Once, but without that competition. Even still, those numbers are far behind what Mario achieved.
Sonic The Hedgehog 3 Won’t Beat Super Mario, But It Does Need Serious Improvement
The Sonic the Hedgehog movies’ grosses were impressive at the time, but The Super Mario Bros. Movie has retroactively made them look bad. This puts the pressure on Sonic the Hedgehog 3 to be a huge hit. The Super Mario Bros. Movie’s 1.3 billion is a very difficult feat for Sonic the Hedgehog 3, as it would have to make almost a billion dollars more than its predecessor. Even so, Sonic the Hedgehog 3 needs to be an improvement over the previous two movies in the series.
There was a difference of slightly more than $100 million between Sonic the Hedgehog and Sonic the Hedgehog 2, and with that pattern in mind, Sonic the Hedgehog 3 would barely break $500 million. If Sonic the Hedgehog 3 reaches $500 million, the franchise’s total gross would be just over $1.2 billion. In that scenario, the Sonic trilogy would have grossed less than one Mario movie. For the Sonic trilogy to match The Super Mario Bros. Movie‘s box office gross, the threequel needs to make around $635 million worldwide. Essentially, it’s difficult to imagine Sonic 3 outgrossing Super Mario, but the third film can still elevate the franchise’s overall performance.
How Sonic The Hedgehog 3 Can Improve On Sonic 2’s Box Office
The Sonic the Hedgehog movie franchise does have an advantage over The Super Mario Bros. Movie, which is the critical reception. Both Sonic films have a higher Rotten Tomatoes score than Mario. Sonic the Hedgehog 3 must continue this trend if it wants to perform well at the box office. Sonic the Hedgehog 2‘s ending featured Shadow coming to life, and the character’s popularity could help the next film. Idris Elba’s Knuckles was a Sonic the Hedgehog 2 scene-stealer too, and the character is getting a TV series that expands the world of the Sonic movies. It’s unclear whether Jim Carrey will be in Sonic the Hedgehog 3, which would surely help the box office.
Why The Super Mario Bros. Movie Was So Much Bigger Than Sonic’s Movies
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 is over two hours, whereas The Super Mario Bros. Movie is 92 minutes long. Shorter films usually worked better with younger audiences, which are the primary audiences for those movies. A thirty-minute difference in the runtime between the two movies also meant that way more The Super Mario Bros. Movie screenings could be shown per day, which helped the box office. The runtime is not the only reason why The Super Mario Bros was so much bigger than Sonic and Sonic 2.
Mario and all of the characters in the Nintendo franchise have been at the forefront of Nintendo’s marketing for decades and never left the video game landscape. New Mario-related games are released every year and are among Nintend’s most successful titles. However, SEGA has not pushed Sonic the Hedgehog anywhere near as much, and in the rare event that there is a new Sonic game, it usually has a mixed or negative reception. While Sonic holds a legacy, SEGA has not managed to keep that legacy intact as Nintendo has with Mario. Super Mario Bros. 2‘s story can expand on that legacy and result in an even bigger, more successful movie in the future.
Universal also filled The Super Mario Bros. Movie with a ton of other classic Nintendo characters like Donkey Kong, as well as classic game phases such as the Rainbow Road kart race. Paramount could even borrow a page out of Universal’s book by featuring more SEGA characters in Sonic the Hedgehog 3. Still, the characters of the Sonic universe may not be as popular as the Nintendo ones, although Paramount is looking at building a Sonic cinematic universe. While Sonic does have franchise potential and delivered two successful movies, the Super Mario movie IP is currently stronger.
