Oscars 2024: Why Each Best Picture Nominee Will Win (& Why It Won’t)

With less than a month to go until the 96th Academy Awards, the 2024 Oscars are shaping up to be the most predictable in years, especially when it comes to the biggest award of the night: Best Picture. Since the day it was released on July 21, 2023, Oppenheimer became the most obvious frontrunner to go the distance, and that momentum kept building with each passing month, especially after the actors and writers strikes were settled, allowing writer-director Christopher Nolan and actors Cillian Murphy, Emily Blunt, and Robert Downey Jr. to hit the road with now-customary FYC Q&As. And that momentum kicked into high gear on February 10, when Nolan won the top prize at the Directors Guild Awards.

But is Oppenheimer really the clear way-way-way-out-in-front frontrunner to win Best Picture? Is it a done deal at this point? Is it such a safe bet that you could bet the house (or, at least, your Oscar pool) on it? The answer to those questions is yes. Or at least, probably. But maybe not. Maybe there’s something holding it back, allowing another film to sneak in and pull off an upset – and at this stage of the game, what a massive upset that would be. So now might be a good time to take another look at all 10 Oscars 2024 Best Picture nominees and weigh in on why each film actually has a chance to win – and why it doesn’t.

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Oppenheimer

Oppenheimer

R

Drama

History

Biography

Where to Watch

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Oppenheimer is a film by Christopher Nolan, which follows the theoretical physicist J. Robert Oppenheimer, the man behind the atomic bomb. Cillian Murphy will play the titular role, with the story based on the book American Prometheus: The Triumph and Tragedy of J. Robert Oppenheimer by Kai Bird and Martin J. Sherwin.

Release Date

July 21, 2023

Director

Christopher Nolan

Cast

Cillian Murphy , Emily Blunt , Matt Damon , Robert Downey Jr. , Rami Malek , Florence Pugh

Runtime

150 Minutes

Writers

Christopher Nolan

Why it will in: As previously stated, Oppenheimer is the one to beat. It’s the kind of sophisticated, sweeping, epic character study that only an accomplished director like Christopher Nolan could make. It’s 3 hours long, but there’s not a wasted moment, and it breezes by. It’s based on a true story, it made almost $1 billion worldwide, and it’s the most nominated film with 13 nominations. Oppenheimer is a beast, and I wouldn’t bet against it.

Then again, maybe not: Last year was an exceptional year for movies, and any one of the other nine worthy nominees could sneak in and pull the rug right out from under it. Plus, there are those who feel that Oppenheimer is too long, and the last third of the movie turns into a courtroom drama that doesn’t fit with the 2-hour buildup that preceded it. In other words, it’s not a perfect film.

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Poor Things

Poor Things

R

Comedy

Romance

Sci-Fi

Poor Things is a sci-fi romance film from The Lobster director Yorgos Lanthimos. The story focuses on the bizarre and fantastical world of Bella Baxter after a scientist named Dr. Godwin Baxter brings her back to life. The film is based on the 1992 novel of the same name by Alasdair Gray.

Release Date

September 8, 2023

Director

Yorgos Lanthimos

Cast

Emma Stone , Willem Dafoe , Mark Ruffalo , Ramy Youssef , Jerrod Carmichael , Christopher Abbott

Runtime

141 Minutes

Writers

Tony McNamara

Why it will win: It’s safe to say that no other movie last year – or any year, for that matter – is quite like Poor Things. Written and directed by Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things is a wildly imaginative and downright bizarre film that would very much be in line with other recent Best Picture winners like 2019’s Parasite and (especially) last year’s Everything Everywhere All at Once. In other words, if the last few years have proven anything, it’s that the Academy has expanded its tastes, and a movie can no longer be dismissed as being “too weird” for them.

Then again, maybe not: But perhaps this one actually is “too weird” for them. Poor Things certainly has a large base of passionate champions, but it truly is a love-it-or-hate-it movie that isn’t for everybody. Witness the scores on Rotten Tomatoes. While the critics’ score is “certified fresh” at a strong 92%, the audience score is more tempered at 79%. If Academy voters are closer to that Rotten Tomatoes audience score, that could keep Poor Things from landing high enough on the preferential ballot system that’s used to determine Best Picture.

Killers Of The Flower Moon

Why it will win: At 81-years-old, it’s clear that director Martin Scorsese is not resting on his laurels. Killers of the Flower Moon is one of the biggest and most sweeping epics of his career, and that’s saying a lot. It was named “best movie of the year” from critics groups all over the world, and it features a stellar breakthrough performance from Oscars 2024 Best Actress-nominee Lily Gladstone.

Then again, maybe not: Perhaps the biggest (and only) issue with Killers of the Flower Moon is its length. At 3 hours and 26 minutes, many argue that it’s simply way too long, and it would have been better served as a 4-part miniseries for Apple TV+.

American Fiction

American Fiction

Not Yet Rated

Drama

Based on the novel by Percival Everett, American Fiction is a drama film that stars Jeffrey Wright as author and English Professor Thelonious “Monk” Ellison. With his students lacking cultural sensitivity and publishers rejecting his novels, believing them not to be “Black enough,” Monk returns to his hometown where he witnesses a new young Black author who has created an instant best seller. As he attempts to ignore the success of another, he reunites with his family, where tragedy and chaos begin to consume them.

Release Date

September 8, 2023

Director

Cord Jefferson

Cast

Jeffrey Wright , Tracee Ellis Ross , John Ortiz , erika alexander , Leslie Uggams , Adam Brody​ , Keith David , Issa Rae , Sterling K. Brown

Runtime

117 Minutes

Writers

Cord Jefferson

Why it will win: Written and directed by Cord Jefferson, American Fiction took last year’s Toronto International Film Festival by storm when it won the top prize, the People’s Choice Award. It clearly struck a chord (no pun intended), thanks to Jeffrey Wright’s stellar Oscar-nominated performance and a brilliant Oscar-nominated screenplay that deftly balances drama, heart, humor, and satire while exploring the industry’s penchant for racial stereotyping. And since Best Picture is determined by a preferential ballot, American Fiction could end up securing enough second place or even third place votes to pull off a win.

Then again, maybe not:American Fiction is pretty perfect as far as movies go, but compared to daring epics that have “Best Picture-contender” written all over them – like Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Poor Things – American Fiction might be seen as a little too intimate to make the cut. Also, Cord Jefferson was not nominated for Best Director at the 2024 Oscars (though he was for Adapted Screenplay). While that didn’t stop other films from winning Best Picture when their directors weren’t nominated (witness Argo, Green Book, and CODA), the odds are still against it.

The Holdovers

The Holdovers

R

Comedy

Drama

Holiday

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The Holdovers is a comedy-drama film starring Paul Giamatti as Paul Hunham, a prep academy professor hated by peers and students alike. Stuck at the academy for the holidays with no family or friends to visit, he finds himself in the company of a bright-but-troublemaking young student named Angus and the school’s head cook, Mary. Together, the three will create a makeshift family as they bond during the holiday season.

Release Date

November 10, 2023

Director

Alexander Payne

Cast

Paul Giamatti , Da’Vine Joy Randolph , Dominic Sessa , Carrie Preston

Runtime

133 Minutes

Writers

David Hemingson

Why it will win:The Holdovers made its debut at the Telluride Film Festival over Labor Day Weekend, where it was immediately embraced as a feel-good crowd-pleaser that represented a return to form for director Alexander Payne (Election, About Schmidt, and Sideways). Payne has been charming Academy voters at FYC screenings with cast members (and fellow nominees) Paul Giamatti and Da’Vine Joy Randolph ever since the strikes were settled, paving the way for the kind of sprint-to-the-finish-line victory that allowed another recent crowd-pleaser, Green Book, to triumph over that year’s favorite, Roma.

Then again, maybe not: Since Paul Giamatti and especially Da’Vine Joy Randolph are poised to win Oscars for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress, respectively, the Academy may feel like it’s honoring The Holdovers with those wins while giving Best Picture to another film.

Barbie

Barbie

PG-13

Comedy

Adventure

Fantasy

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Barbie is a film adaptation of the generational iconic toy directed by Greta Gerwig, who co-wrote the script with Noah Baumbach. The film centers on Margot Robbie’s Barbie who is expelled from Barbieland and travels with Ken (Ryan Gosling) to the real world in search of happiness. The film also stars Simu Liu, Will Ferrell, and several other famous celebrities in cameo roles.

Release Date

July 21, 2023

Director

Greta Gerwig

Cast

Margot Robbie , Ryan Gosling , Simu Liu , Ariana Greenblatt , Helen Mirren , Nicola Coughlan , John Cena , Will Ferrell , Ritu Arya , Michael Cera , America Ferrera , Alexandra Shipp , Kate McKinnon

Runtime

114 Minutes

Writers

Noah Baumbach , Greta Gerwig

Why it will win: As the other half of “Barbenheimer,” no other film in 2023 turned into a cultural phenomenon quite like Barbie. In addition to grossing a massive $1.5 billion worldwide, Barbie became a pro-feminist talking point that grew even louder when Margot Robbie and Greta Gerwig were snubbed for Best Actress and Best Director, respectively, which many have argued drove home the whole point of the movie. In retaliation, that could lead to a massive amount of Best Picture support from Academy voters, which could push Barbie over the top.

Then again, maybe not: Is a movie about a Mattel doll really going to win Best Picture? No, I didn’t think so either. But if you think about it, Barbie is actually this year’s Top Gun Maverick. Both made around $1.5 billion worldwide and brought people back to theaters for the first time since the start of the pandemic. Both lead actors (Margot Robbie and Tom Cruise) were not nominated for Oscars, nor were their directors (Greta Gerwig and Joseph Kosinski), even though both were nominated for Directors Guild Awards. It’s actually pretty incredible that both Barbie and Top Gun Maverick were nominated for Best Picture, but just like Top Gun didn’t win, Barbie isn’t winning either.

Maestro

Maestro

Biography

Drama

Music

Maestro is a biographical drama about the famous composer Leonard Bernstein. Bradley Cooper stars as Leonard Bernstein and also wrote and directed the film. The movie chronicles Bernstein’s life from 1946, when he met Felicia Montealegre, through his two engagements and three children. Maya Hawke, Carey Mulligan, Sarah Silverman, and Matt Bomer star alongside Cooper.

Release Date

December 20, 2023

Director

Bradley Cooper

Cast

Bradley Cooper , Carey Mulligan , Maya Hawke , Sarah Silverman , Matt Bomer

Runtime

156 Minutes

Writers

Bradley Cooper , Josh Singer

Why it will win: Bradley Cooper’s second directorial effort towers over his debut, 2018’s A Star is Born, and that’s saying a lot. Maestro is an ambitious character study about Leonard Bernstein, one of the most accomplished and beloved composers of all time, and Cooper deftly wears many hats as director, producer, co-writer and, of course, lead actor. As for the latter, Cooper’s performance is an absolute tour-de-force, and I’m actually surprised he’s not the frontrunner to win Best Actor.

Then again, maybe not: Of all the Best Picture nominees, Maestro is the only one that was not given a significant theatrical release and instead streamed on Netflix. That didn’t stop 2021’s CODA from winning Best Picture for its streamer, Apple TV+, but that was during the darker days of the pandemic, when viewing habits were altered. The fact is that while Maestro is a magnificent film that has everything going for it to be a Best Picture frontrunner, it just isn’t being talked about enough at this point in the Oscar race with less than a month to go.

Past Lives

Past Lives

PG-13

Drama

Romance

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Release Date

January 21, 2023

Director

Celine Song

Cast

Greta Lee , Teo Yoo , John Magaro

Runtime

106 minutes

Writers

Celine Song

Why it will win: Ever since Past Lives debuted at the 2023 Sundance Film Festival (more than a year ago!), it has stayed in the conversation loud and clear, and for good reason. Written and directed by Celine Song, Past Lives is a beautiful, exquisite film that casts a magical spell, is beloved by everyone who has seen it, and has the biggest heart of all the Best Picture nominees.

Then again, maybe not: With just one other nomination (for Best Original Screenplay), Past Lives is perhaps the sole Best Picture nominee that deserves the honor just to be nominated.

Anatomy Of A Fall

Why it will win: In addition to winning the coveted Palme d’Or (the top prize) at last year’s Cannes Film Festival, Anatomy of a Fall came into awards season strong with five very significant Oscar nominations. In addition to Best Picture, it’s nominated for Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, Best Actress, and Best Editing, the latter of which sealed the deal for its strong showing. In addition, Academy membership has doubled in recent years to almost 11,000 members from 93 countries. With such a strong international contingent doing the voting, could an international feature like Anatomy of a Fall pull off a Parasite to win Best Picture?

Then again, maybe not: No, I didn’t think so either. But you never know, and that would be a hell of a thing, wouldn’t it?

The Zone Of Interest

Why it will win: If there’s one thing that the Academy has traditionally gravitated to, it’s movies about the Holocaust. And with only his fourth feature film since 2000’s Sexy Beast, Jonathan Glazer has directed a Holocaust movie like no other – and that’s a bold statement. In The Zone of Interest, it’s not what we see, but what we hear – specifically, the screams, the gunshots and the furnaces. It’s a terrifying and haunting effect that stays with you long after the film has ended, leaving perhaps the biggest impact of any of the Best Picture nominees.

Then again, maybe not: Unlike Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest is nominated for Best International Feature at the Oscars 2024. That’s where it’s going to win, and it’s pretty much a lock at this point.