2021 will be a chaotic year for the Supporting Actress category. With the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild Awards noms already announced, awards season enthusiasts hoped for a clear idea of whom the final five nominees will be. Instead, major snubs and surprising nominees made predicting this category a lot tougher.
As of February, two contenders seem like a lock for the nomination, repeating a major showdown that originally took place in the 2019 Best Actress category. Aside from those two, the remaining three slots will be battled out by four very solid contenders, and at least four more who, after gaining momentum in the last couple of weeks, are looking forward to a possible spot in the final five.
Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite
At the beginning of the season, Oscar darling Saoirse Ronan seemed like a sure bet. In Ammonite, Ronan plays British geologist Charlotte Murchinson opposite Kate Winslet’s take on British paleontologist Mary Anning. The film centers on the supposed love affair that took place between the two.
Upon release, reviews were polarizing. Many praised the performances, particularly Winslet’s, but almost all critics found the film conventional and inconsistent, offering nothing new to the already crowded period-piece genre. Ronan was absent from both the Globes and SAG, but a possible BAFTA nomination might bring her back to life.
Dominique Fishback – Judas And The Black Messiah
Despite glowing reviews and a very positive audience reception, Judas and the Black Messiah‘s late entry into the race means it hasn’t connected with guilds or awards bodies. Beyond Daniel Kaluuya’s electric performance, the film received little attention, which doesn’t bode well for Fishback’s chances.
Starring Kaluuya and Lakeith Stanfield, Judas follows William O’Neal, an FBI informant who infiltrates the Illinois chapter of the Black Panther Party. Fishback plays writer and activist Deborah Johnson, at the time Hampton’s girlfriend. Her performance is certainly Oscar-worthy, but she has no major nomination up to this point. If she lands a BAFTA nomination, however, she can become a serious threat.
Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian
It’s been twenty-six years since Jodie Foster’s last Oscar nomination, which came in 1995 for her leading role in Nell. She aims for a return with The Mauritanian, based on the 2015 memoir Guantánamo Diary by Mohamedou Ould Salahi. Tahar Rahim plays Salahi, who spends fourteen years in Guantanamo Bay until he finds an ally in Foster’s defense attorney, Nancy Hollander.
Foster was absent from most critics’ awards, but that may be due to the film’s late entry into the race. Her chances received a boost thanks to her Golden Globe nomination, and if she receives one from BAFTA, then she might make a comeback.
Ellen Burstyn – Pieces Of A Woman
Veteran actress Ellen Burstyn gives quite the performance in Netflix’s Pieces of a Woman. The film, which tells the story of a couple dealing with the aftermath of a home birth gone wrong, received a mainly positive reception from critics and audiences. Most of the praise focused on Vanessa Kirby’s central performance, although Burstyn, playing Kirby’s mother, was also singled out.
Many saw this as the opportunity to bring Burstyn back into the Oscars, 21 years after her last nomination for Requiem for a Dream. And while Kirby received nominations from the Globes, SAG, and Critics Choice Awards, Burstyn was snubbed by the first two, considerably diminishing her chances.
Helena Zengel – News Of The World
The Oscars love to use Supporting Actress nominations to introduce and reward newcomers. Child actors fare especially well in the category, something that might work in Helena Zengel’s favor. In News of the World, Tom Hanks plays a Civil War veteran who must return a young girl, played by Zengel, to her last remaining family, after she was taken by Indigenous Americans.
Zengel surprised by receiving nominations from both the Globes and the Screen Actors Guild, instantly making her a threat. If she receives a BAFTA nomination, then her chances at Oscar recognition will be almost certain.
Youn Yuh-jung – Minari
Respected South-Korean actress Youn Yuh-jung dominated critics’ awards thanks to her performance in Lee Isaac Chung’s Minari. In the film, which follows a South Korean immigrant family as they try to make it in rural America in the 1980s, she plays Soon-ja, the unconventional grandmother.
Many critics feared that her path would be similar to Zhao Shuzhen’s last year, in that she would sweep critics’ awards but ultimately miss recognition from major organizations. However, her SAG nomination confirmed her place as one of the category’s front-runners, and a place among the Oscar five seems more likely than ever.
Amanda Seyfried – Mank
Mank follows screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz as he attempts to write the screenplay for Citizen Kane. The film, which stars Gary Oldman and Amanda Seyfried, received a decidedly more lukewarm response than expected, although all reviews praised Seyfried and considered her the best part of the film. She plays Marion Davies, and her performance earned her numerous nominations and wins in critics’ awards.
Despite nominations for the Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards, Seyfried’s Oscar campaign suffered a huge blow when she was snubbed by SAG. Once considered to be the front-runner of the category, her position is now threatened, especially with so many contenders treading on her heels. As of now, she’s still safe for a nomination. A win is looking more and more unlikely, though.
Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
If Maria Bakalova lands a nomination for her work in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, then it will be one of the most inspired choices in recent memory. In the film, she plays Tutar, Borat’s daughter who is to be offered as a bride to former Vice President Mike Pence.
Bakalova, like Youn Yuh-jung, dominated the critics’ portion of awards season. Her placement sparked category arguments, as her screentime and role in the movie are more than enough to qualify her as a Lead. Indeed, the Globes nominated her in the Comedy Actress category, while the SAG and the Critics’ Choice placed her in Supporting. In the end, though, her presence among the final Oscar five seems like a sure bet.
Olivia Colman – The Father
Just two years after winning Best Actress for her devastating turn as Queen Anne in Yorgos Lanthimos’ The Favourite, Olivia Colman returns to the Oscar conversation, this time in the Supporting Actress category. In The Father, she plays the daughter of an aging Welshman who’s dealing with progressive memory loss.
Colman received nominations from nearly every critic group, a streak that continued with all the major organizations. Thanks to Globe, SAG, and Critics’ Choice acknowledgments, and with a certain BAFTA nomination in her future, Colman has everything to ultimately win the gold. However, her last victory is so recent that it’s unlikely she’ll find herself on the stage again.
Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy
And speaking of the 2019 Oscar race, Glenn Close came absurdly close to finally claiming her statuette, only to be ultimately bested by Colman. She returns to the conversation this year thanks to her role in Ron Howard’s Hillbilly Elegy, based on the 2016 memoir of the same name.
This would be Close’s eighth nomination, increasing her record for most nominations without ever winning. She received notices from the Globes, SAG, and Critics’ Choice, and BAFTA seems to be up next. The film’s negative reception might be a problem, but Close’s performance is its one saving grace. Could this finally be her year? Regardless of whether she wins, one thing is certain, and it’s that Glenn Close has been deserving of an Oscar for a long time.
