If there’s one Oscar category where the winner seems set in stone, that’s Best Director. Chloé Zhao has been picking award after award for her touching and thought-provoking study on struggle and Middle America, Nomadland. At this point, betting against her would be plain foolishness.
What’s interesting about this category is that, aside from Zhao, the rest of the nominees are far from certain. Sure, some seem more likely than others, but none are guaranteed for a nomination. In fact, at least two of the current prospects could find themselves snubbed by an increasingly erratic awards season, where it pretty much feels like anything could happen.
George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Although Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom is bound to be a contender in several categories, including Picture, Actor, and Actress, it might notably be absent from Best Director. The film, which portrays a fictionalized recording session for notable blues singer Ma Rainey in 1920s Chicago, received praise for its production value and performances. Most criticism centered on the film being too much like a stage play at times.
Wolfe has been absent from every major Director lineup, being a no-show at the Golden Globes, BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, and Director’s Guild Awards. Still, if Ma Rainey overperforms, Wolfe could find himself in the final five.
Paul Greengrass – News Of The World
Previously nominated in 2007 for directing the action drama United 93, Paul Greengrass could make his return to the Dolby Theater thanks to News of the World. A Western drama starring Tom Hanks and Helena Zengel, it follows a Civil War veteran who must return a young girl to her last surviving family.
The film had an underwhelming performance in most precursors, although Zengel did receive nominations from the Globes and SAG for her supporting performance. Still, Greengrass’s name did not show up in any of the major awards shows, and with the film’s prospects diminishing by the hour, chances are this will not be his year.
Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods
American icon Spike Lee won his first Oscar two years ago for BlacKkKlansman‘s screenplay. He also received a directing nomination, his first in a career spanning thirty-five years. This year, he again figures in the conversation thanks to one of his most lauded works, Da 5 Bloods, the story of four aging Vietnam veterans who return to the country to retrieve the remains of their fallen squad leader and the treasure they buried during the war.
Despite showing up in numerous critics’ awards, mainly thanks to Delroy Lindo’s performance, Da 5 Bloods failed to gain any recognition from the Golden Globes or BAFTA. Lindo has also been absent in every major precursor and now it seems Chadwick Boseman’s supporting performance will be the only major nomination for this terrific film.
Regina King – One Night In Miami
Making her directorial debut, Regina King enters the race with One Night in Miami. The film is about a fictionalized meeting between Malcolm X, Muhammad Ali, Jim Brown, and Sam Cooke. One Night in Miami received critical acclaim, with most praise going to the screenplay, performances, particularly Leslie Odom Jr.’s, and King’s direction.
Already an Oscar winner for Best Supporting Actress, King’s directorial efforts received nominations from the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards, as well as a DGA mention for Outstanding Directing – First Time Feature Film. Support for the movie seems to have wained over the last couple of days, but her name in the nominees would not come as a surprise.
Florian Zeller – The Father
French novelist, playwright, and director Florian Zeller has been mostly absent from the Director conversation throughout awards season. Like King, he received a DGA nomination for Outstanding Directing – First Time Feature Film and he seems like a sure bet for an adapted screenplay Oscar nomination. A nod for Best Director could also be possible, especially if the film overperforms with Academy voters.
Based on his own 2014 play, The Father tells the story of an aging Welshman who deals with progressive memory loss. Anthony Hopkins and Olivia Colman are on track to receive acting nominations and the film itself is a Best Picture contender.
Aaron Sorkin – The Trial Of The Chicago 7
One of the most respected screenwriters in Hollywood, Aaron Sorkin seems on his way to winning a second Oscar for The Trial of the Chicago 7‘s screenplay. Best Director, on the other hand, is an entirely different story. Sorkin certainly has the narrative to achieve the nomination but a win may be out of the question.
The Academy could feel the Original Screenplay Oscar is enough. And with Zhao, Fincher, Chung, and Fennell all having more compelling narratives, rewarding Sorkin becomes less pressing. There’s also the very real possibility that Sorkin could miss the final five, especially with King and Zeller on the hunt. He seems safe for now but a snub could absolutely happen.
Emerald Fennel – Promising Young Woman
It’s clear that Promising Young Woman has been a consistent presence throughout awards season. Carey Mulligan is a frontrunner for not only a Lead Actress nomination but quite possibly the win. And writer/director Emerald Fennell is likely to make it to the final five, making it the first time two women are nominated in Best Director in the Oscars’ ninety-three-year history.
The film’s timely subject makes it one of the most inspired and relevant choices of the year. And while Fennell won’t win, the nomination will make all the difference and will be yet another feather in her already promising cap.
Lee Isaac Chung – Minari
After a somewhat slow start, Lee Isaac Chung’s deeply personal and heartfelt Minari seems to have peaked at the perfect moment. It received several important nominations, including a pivotal SAG ensemble mention, and was an overall strong performer at BAFTA.
Chung’s direction received rave reviews ever since Minari premiered at the 2020 Sundance Film Festival. And although the film initially seemed like a decent performer, its profile increased considerably in the last couple of days and could now overperform in categories where it once seemed like a no-show (Best Supporting Actor for Alan Kim, for example).
David Fincher – Mank
Once the category’s apparent frontrunner, David Fincher is now expected to go home empty-handed for a third time, after his losing bids for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and The Social Network. Although critics’ appreciated Mank‘s ambition and production values, the film received a decidedly more lukewarm reception than anticipated.
Still, Mank is expected to lead the nominations, thanks to its strength in the below-the-line categories and Amanda Seyfried and, possibly, Gary Oldman’s performances. Fincher is, after Zhao, the safest bet for a nomination, and a snub seems highly unlikely, but in a season as unexpected as this one, one never knows.
Chloé Zhao – Nomadland
It might not be crazy to say that Chloé Zhao has the Oscar on the bag. Her work in Nomadland is stunning, as is her ability to create an intimate and realistic portrayal of Middle America that never seems preachy or superficial. Anchored by a career-best performance by Frances McDormand, Nomadland is one of the best character studies in recent years.
Zhao already won the Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice Award, as well as a plethora of other Best Director acknowledgments from numerous critics’ associations. BAFTA and DGA are next on her list on her way to becoming the second woman to win the Academy Award for Best Director.
