Christopher Nolan has never won an Oscar, but a new, different nomination is good news for his chances with Oppenheimer, even if it introduces more competition. With Christopher Nolan’s iconic cinematography, it may come as a shock that he has only five Oscar nominations for only three of his films, and only one was for his direction. Nolan could take home an Oscar for Best Director and Oppenheimer could win the Best Picture Oscar, effectively ending his losing streak that started in 2002 with a Best Original Screenplay nomination for Memento.

Nolan is the frontrunner for Best Director against other strong candidates like Martin Scorcese and Greta Gerwig. While this Oscar may be a lock for Nolan, especially after his win at the Golden Globes, it can be harder to pin down a clear Best Picture winner in the lead-up to the Academy Awards. There are many different ways to predict frontrunners in the awards race, including other awards nominations and wins. The recently released 2024 Screen Actors Guild Award nominations are a good sign for Nolan and Oppenheimer’s Oscars chances.

Oppenheimer’s SAG Awards Nominations Are A Good Sign For Its Oscars 2024 Chances

The SAG Awards only celebrate actors, so Nolan himself didn’t receive any nominations, but Oppenheimer led with five nominations (tied with Barbie), including one for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture. Like Best Picture at the Oscars, the SAG ensemble award is the biggest award of its respective night. A SAG ensemble win is also strongly linked with a Best Picture Oscar win, with three of the last four Best Picture winners having also won the SAG. If the Oppenheimer cast were to win the ensemble award, it would be a good sign for its Best Picture chances.

Oppenheimer has remained in strong talks for Best Picture contention, further fueled by a win for Best Film: Drama at the Golden Globes and the SAG nominations. The other movies nominated in the cast performance category are American Fiction, Barbie, The Color Purple, and Killers of the Flower Moon. Notably absent are The Holdovers and Poors Things, which picked up some other acting nominations and have been in talks for the Best Picture win as well. This, along with Barbie’s Oscar hopes being essentially dashed by the Golden Globes, have helped shrink the pool of true contenders against Oppenheimer.

American Fiction Could Be A Surprising Best Picture Contender After The SAG Awards

While some of Oppenheimer’s Best Picture competition missed out on the SAG ensemble nomination, American Fiction’s nomination makes it a surprising new contender for the Oscar. The comedy-drama film was released towards the end of 2023, whereas Oppenheimer premiered last summer, making it a later addition to the conversation. While American Fiction was definitely in contention for a Best Picture nomination, it hadn’t been considered a potential winner until this SAG Award nomination.

Most of the awards talk around American Fiction has revolved around its star, actor Jeffrey Wright, though it features a strong supporting cast, including Tracee Ellis Ross, Issa Rae, Sterling K. Brown, John Ortiz, and more. Wright predictably earned a Best Actor nomination, but the nominations for Brown and the American Fiction ensemble were more surprising and bolstered its chances for not just a Best Picture Oscar nomination, but potentially a win as well. Though Oppenheimer can still be considered a potential frontrunner in the Best Picture race, Christopher Nolan’s chances may come down to the SAG ensemble award.