Netflix’s pursuit of Oscars glory with a Best Picture win has yet to materialize, and the 2024 race could once again prove to be a challenge. The world’s biggest streaming service became very focused on becoming a major awards player several years ago, resulting in Netflix routinely funding projects from Oscar-caliber directors that other studios would not touch. The director-friendly workplace positioned the streamer as a savior for Hollywood at a time when blockbusters and franchises continued to dominate the box office and squeeze out dramas, thrillers, and other types of films aimed at adults that typically contend for Oscars.
Netflix’s willingness to fund prestige dramas and back the work of accomplished filmmakers put them in a familiar spot of earning Best Picture nominations in each of the last five years. Several of their films are in the conversation for the 2024 Oscars Best Picture nominees too. While Netflix’s overall efforts have resulted in the creation of some incredible Oscar-worthy movies, the service has had no luck in winning the Academy Awards’ top prize. It is no secret that the streamer wants to add a Best Picture winner to the list of accolades for a Netflix original movie, and its chances of doing so in 2024 are complicated.
Oscars 2024: Predictions For All 23 Categories
The Oscars 2024 race is well underway, with the likes of Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Barbie hoping to win big at the Academy Awards.
Netflix Has Had 8 Best Picture Nominees, But No Winners
Over the course of the last five years, there have been eight Netflix movies that received Best Picture nominations. Alfonso Cuarón’s Roma became the first Netflix movie to achieve this goal in 2019. The following year brought two more nominees with Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman and Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story. 2021 saw two additional Best Picture nominations come for David Fincher’s Mank and Aaron Sorkin’s The Trial of the Chicago 7, while 2022 brought Adam McKay’s Don’t Look Up and Jane Champion’s The Power of the Dog. Netflix’s long Best Picture nomination in 2023 came with Edward Berger’s All Quiet on the Western Front.
Despite the strong contention status that many of these movies held, none of them managed to win Best Picture. Roma lost to Green Book, and the two 2020 nominees lost to Parasite. Netflix’s pair of 2021 contenders fell short to Nomadland, and the 2022 films couldn’t top CODA. Meanwhile, All Quiet on the Western Front lost to Everything Everywhere All At Once‘s win in 2023. These eight Best Picture nominees still left a mark for Netflix, earning 67 nominations and sharing 11 wins between them. However, the inability of presumed Oscars heavyweights like The Irishman or The Power of the Dog to win Best Picture is notable.
Other Streaming Services Have Beaten Netflix To Best Picture Records
Netflix’s individual reasons for wanting a Best Picture-winning movie make their lack of doing so all the more glaring considering how its rivals have done. Netflix has been beaten by other streaming services already when it comes to two important Best Picture records. While Roma was Netflix’s first Best Picture nominee in 2019, it was two years late to claim to be the first movie released by a streaming service to get a nomination. That honor goes to Prime Video thanks to the involvement of Amazon Studios in Manchester by the Sea. The 2016 release was among the 2017 Best Picture nominees, but it did not win.
Apple TV+ managed to surprise Hollywood with its Oscars win in 2022 as CODA won Best Picture. The emotional, feel-good film became the darling of awards season, surpassing Netflix movies that were thought to be stronger contenders. This allowed CODA to become the first movie made by a streaming service to win Best Picture. Losing out to a competitor in this manner had to be frustrating for Netflix, especially since CODA was Apple TV+’s first Best Picture nominee. The immediate and unexpected success that Apple had at the Oscars is a stark difference to Netflix’s experience, raising questions about a potential bias against Netflix releases.
Maestro & May December Are Netflix’s Strongest 2024 Oscars Contenders
Netflix’s hopes of winning Best Picture at the 2024 Oscars will likely rest with its two strongest contenders: Bradley Cooper’s Maestro and Todd Haynes’ May December. Both movies have received critical acclaim and are thought to be in a strong position for nominations in many different categories. Cooper’s Leonard Bernstein biopic could land him Best Director and Best Actor nominations, while Carey Mulligan is viewed as a frontrunner for Best Actress as well. May December is similarly thought to be strong enough to possibly get Haynes in the director race and put Natalie Portman, Julianne Moore, and Charles Melton in contention for acting awards.
The overall strength of Maestro and May December is why they are viewed as Netflix’s best shots to get Best Picture nominations and possibly a victory with strong enough campaigns. The streamer does have other 2023 movies that are viewed more as long shots to be in the Best Picture discussion. Films like Rustin, American Symphony, Nyad, Society of the Snow, Fair Play, The Killer, Leave the World Behind, and Pain Hustlers are others vying for Oscar nominations. While some could make a mark in other categories, Netflix is likely to keep its Best Picture hopes tied to Maestro and May December.
Netflix’s Best Picture Hopes Will Take A Massive Upset
It will not be easy for the 2024 Oscars to be where Netflix’s first Best Picture win happens. Maestro and May December are both in the running for nominations, but neither of them is currently viewed as a strong favorite to actually win. Even with the preferential ballot system in place, there are many other movies that arguably have a leg up on them. This ranges from box office hits like Barbie to critically acclaimed indies like The Holdovers or Poor Things. Netflix might be able to push Maestro or May December ahead of that pack with strong campaigns. However, entering the upper echelon will be more challenging.
Long before anyone had even seen some of the potential 2024 Best Picture nominees, it was presumed that Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer and Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon will be the two main contenders to win the Academy Award. The response to both movies and their overall acclaim has only strengthened that thinking. The entire awards season looks to have Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon at odds in the biggest categories, ranging from Best Actor to Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay. However, it is the Best Picture Oscar that both movies want the most, and the odds are on either of them to win.
Netflix’s inability to overtake Oppenheimer or Killers of the Flower Moon for a Best Picture upset would mean the streamer will have to wait until next year to try and win Hollywood’s biggest award. Losing to Christopher Nolan and Oppenheimer will not have much bearing on Netflix, its status, or its strategy. However, Killers of the Flower Moon winning Best Picture would give Apple TV+ a second Best Picture win. If Apple manages to win two out of three Best Picture Oscars before Netflix even wins a single one, the streamer might have to re-examine what it will take to finally win it all.
