Disney’s live-action Mulan remake has a new July release date, but it still feels too optimistic. The upcoming movie is one of several Hollywood projects affected by the coronavirus pandemic, having been delayed from its original March 2020 debut. As part of efforts to prevent the spread of COVID-19 and help flatten the curve, movie theaters around the world are closed indefinitely. Disney had no choice but to postpone Mulan’s premiere and monitor the situation moving forward, keeping an eye out for signs of improvement. Many of the delayed films are targeting fall and winter releases (see: Top Gun: Maverick slated for December), but Disney feels it’ll be safe for Mulan to come out a littler earlier.
The studio recently announced an entirely new release slate for the next couple of years, which includes a new date for Mulan. It now opens on July 24, 2020, which was previously set aside for the now-delayed Jungle Cruise. While everyone is certainly hoping things have greatly improved by the time July rolls around, an argument can be the Mouse House is being a little too optimistic when it comes to the rescheduling of Mulan.
While there are a few stragglers hanging on to late summer release dates (most notably Christopher Nolan’s Tenet), other studios are starting to abandon July. Sony just pushed tentpoles Ghostbusters: Afterlife and Morbius to 2021, feeling that was the safer play than rolling the dice with a summer 2020 premiere. Due to the fluidity of the COVID-19 situation, it’s impossible to predict when it’ll be safe to reopen theaters. AMC CEO Adam Aron wishes multiplexes will be up and running in mid-June, but it seems likelier some theaters will be closed longer than expected – particularly as they take severe financial losses.
Even if theaters are open in June or July, it doesn’t mean things will instantly turn back to normal. A study showed attendance numbers may significantly decrease post-pandemic, as people would be (understandably) leery of going to big public gatherings like movie screenings. In that scenario, Mulan could potentially have an uphill climb to do solid business at the box office, putting Disney in a tight spot. This was supposed to be one of the studio’s major 2020 tentpoles, budgeted at around $200 million. Going by the general rule of thumb, Mulan would need to make approximately $400 million worldwide just to break even (that figure is likely more considering the losses Disney’s taken by delaying the film). The film industry is a business, meaning studios have a responsibility to put their projects in a position where they can achieve the most success. July ultimately may not be ideal for Mulan.
It remains to be seen how the current health crisis progresses over the next couple of months (stay-at-home orders could still be in effect), but it wouldn’t be surprising if Disney had to move Mulan again in the near future. The studio has too much riding on the film, and there’s no need to take unnecessary risks in uncertain times. It’s true Disney can afford to take the rare box office bomb, but they want all of their movies to be hits. Mulan isn’t like Artemis Fowl, which is better suited for Disney+ than a wide theatrical release. Disney’s live-action remakes of their animated films have proven to be a very lucrative sub-franchise, and Mulan definitely could have joined the ranks of Aladdin and The Lion King thanks to its wide appeal. It might be smarter to push it back to 2021.
Key Release Dates
Mulan
Release Date:2020-09-04
