The news of Mulan being released straight to Disney+ for $29.99 shocked movie fans around the globe; however, the film presents the perfect opportunity for the media juggernaut to test the platform for new releases. The move to bypass theaters in the face of a global pandemic is not anything new. Studios have taken different approaches to releasing movies at home: Some movies have been bought by Netflix to drop on their service; others premiered as VOD titles. Even Disney has experimented with this already with Artemis Fowl and Hamilton releasing on Disney+; the difference is that both of those movies were free outside the $6.99 subscription fee — Mulan is not.
Mulan is set up differently than the aforementioned movies. Not only does the live-action remake have a more significant following and history, but it also comes with much higher expectations, thanks to its considerably higher budget (reportedly the highest budget of any Disney film). The 1998 animated film was beloved by many and brought in over $300 million at the box office. Over two decades later, many of those who saw it in theaters as kids now have children of their own to share Mulan with. In a world where COVID-19 never happened, the film could have grossed over $1 billion in the box office.
Mulan makes perfect sense as the guinea pig to get this premium treatment by Disney. The decision to drop Artemis Fowl and Hamilton for free makes sense: Artemis Fowl was likely released on the service due to shaky box office projections, while Hamilton was used to build the brand. The buzz Disney got from the 4th of July weekend release and the new subscribers drawn to Disney+ by Hamilton justified the production’s $75 million acquisition deal.
If the same gamble pays off for Mulan, Disney will likely pivot to some version of this strategy going forward. The New Mutants has contractual obligations as a Fox property that make a direct to Disney+ move highly unlikely, but most other Disney properties are possible. $30 does not feel like a steep price to watch Black Widow. Most Marvel fans would happily fork over the money to watch the start of Phase 4 of the MCU. With it seeming unlikely Disney will drop any 20th Century Studios or Searchlight movies straight to streaming, the most important title remaining in question is Soul. The animated film feels like a lock for at least an Oscar nomination; it has even gotten some early best picture buzz. If theaters are still closed in November, it would seem like a smart move for Disney to release Soul straight to Disney+ to compete for an Oscar in a weak 2021 ceremony — and even if theaters are open, most people are not going to be rushing back into that potentially-dangerous environment and would potentially be more likely to pay to watch it at home.
If Mulan fails, Disney will be in a difficult spot: Not only will the on-demand release severely undercut the appeal of a theatrical release down the line, but it failing to generate profits would demonstrate that the strategy is unreliable from a business perspective. If this strategy does not work out, it would seem unlikely that Disney would try this again anytime soon with its major releases. Disney would likely push back Black Widow and Soul to 2021, thus further delaying the rest of the MCU. Mulan struggling would be a significant win for movie theaters’ long-term viability — an industry which already faced an uncertain future before the pandemic.
