Mulan Skipping Theaters Could Be Better For Disney, Says Analyst

A Wall Street analyst believes Mulan skipping theaters may be better for Disney in the long run. Back in March, the studio’s live-action remake was only a couple weeks out from hitting theaters when the U.S. went on lockdown in response to the rapidly-worsening coronavirus pandemic.  After pulling the film off the release calendar, Disney rescheduled Mulan for July 24, on the assumption theaters will be reopen for business by then. But even at the time, that timeline was viewed as being overly optimistic.

Officially, the studio remains hopeful Mulan can hit that date, but the closer it gets, the less likely it looks. Much like its fellow $200 million tentpole Tenet (which is currently scheduled to open a week earlier), the film will need about 80% of the world’s theaters to be reopen by then to have a shot at making back its costs, including markets like New York, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. And even if theaters are up and running again by July, it might actually be more viable for Disney to scrap Mulan‘s theatrical release due to other factors.

During a recent conference call (via Deadline), Wall Street analyst Michael Nathanson said he doesn’t “think it’s a given” Mulan will hit theaters. As he pointed out, Disney would have to “un-furlough” a lot of their employees in the marketing and distribution departments to start promoting Mulan in time for a summer release that might not even be doable. Having already spent a lot to promote the film ahead of its original date in March, Nathanson speculated the company might elect to have Mulan skip theaters and release straight to PVOD before heading to Disney+ instead (possibly as soon as Labor Day). This type of streaming-focused rollout “could be better for Disney stock in a long run than having Mulan go to theaters,” according to Nathanson.

Perhaps tellingly, Disney has yet to restart its marketing for Mulan less than two months out from its new release date. The company, as mentioned, has already spent a good deal raising awareness for Mulan, so it’s smart of them to hold off on committing more money to a July release for as long as possible. Warner Bros. only barely got the next wave of marketing going for Tenet, but even then they’re playing it safe and listing the film as “Coming to Theaters” in trailers and TV spots, in case they have to push it back. There’s a real possibility they will have to; as it were, San Francisco currently doesn’t expect to reopen its theaters until mid-August, and there’s a strong chance New York and Los Angeles are planning to follow suit. If so, both Tenet and Mulan will have to change course.

Tenet being delayed could have a massive effect on the rest of the slate for 2020, with one studio insider predicting there won’t be any new movies playing in theaters until December if it happens. Financially speaking, then, it might well be better for Disney to simply send Mulan to PVOD in that event, rather than delaying it again to later this year or 2021. The idea of a big-budget Disney live-action remake going directly to streaming might’ve seem unfathomable a couple months ago, but under the circumstances it might be the best option. As recent PVOD releases Trolls World Tour and Scoob! have shown, a four-quadrant movie like Mulan could even earn decent revenue on-demand – perhaps more than it would playing in theaters abiding by social distancing guidelines, no less.