Lightyear will need to meet two significant targets to be considered as successful as the rest of the Toy Story series. Pixar’s latest animation will explore the origin story of Buzz Lightyear, the human space ranger who inspired the famous action figure. Chris Evans will voice Buzz, having taken over duties from Tim Allen who played the toy version of the character in Toy Story. However, whichever direction the narrative takes, there are a couple of obstacles ahead before the film can be considered a worthy addition to the Toy Story canon.
The official trailer for Lightyear shows Buzz Lightyear accidentally traveling 62 years forward in time during a test flight for Star Command, but little else is currently known about the movie’s storyline. Buzz will not be joined by Woody, Jessie, or any of his other Toy Story friends, which makes sense given his toy counterpart was introduced as an outsider to Andy’s collection. The only legacy Toy Story character who has been confirmed to appear is Emperor Zurg. In Toy Story 2, Zurg is Buzz Lightyear’s archenemy who, in homage to Star Wars: Episode V – The Empire Strikes Back, is revealed to be his father. The trailer hints that this Zurg is not Buzz Lightyear’s father in Lightyear, which opens up a fresh story to be told.
However, before Lightyear can be labeled a successful entry into the Toy Story series, it must match two near-impossible standards – its critical and commercial success. The four previous Toy Story films are widely lauded as being among the most accomplished animated movies of all time, with the original trilogy winning particular praise. Equally, all four films were box office sensations, with the saga grossing over $3 billion in total. Given this legacy, Lightyear must succeed on both fronts in order to stack up.
A particular consideration will be whether Lightyear reaches the $1 billion mark. Both Toy Story 3 and Toy Story 4 grossed over $1 billion worldwide, as did Pixar’s The Incredibles 2 and Finding Dory. That has to be the financial target for Lightyear, although expectations may be dampened because it will be the company’s first cinematic release since 2020’s Onward due to the COVID-19 outbreak. In 2019, nine movies made over $1 billion, including Toy Story 4, but since the onset of the pandemic, only Spider-Man: No Way Home has breached that milestone. Still, Pixar has good reason to be optimistic. Buzz Lightyear, like Spider-Man, is a universally recognized character who will attract audiences to the cinema. Also, family movies are topping the box office in 2022. Sonic The Hedgehog 2 and The Bad Guys have outperformed critically acclaimed movies like The Northman this year, demonstrating the appetite that families have to get back to theaters.
A more difficult target that Lightyear will aim to meet is Toy Story‘s critical ratings. On Rotten Tomatoes, the lowest Tomatometer score the franchise holds is Toy Story 4‘s 97%. Toy Story 3 stands at 98%, while the first two installments both hold a perfect 100%. The ratings are unrivaled by any other film series, which makes Pixar’s shift to a Buzz Lightyear origin story a riskier route to take than Toy Story 5. Even so, there’s still a good chance Lightyear can live up to the standards of its predecessors. Pixar’s recent releases have scored above 90%, with their latest movie Turning Red reaching 94% on the Tomatometer, and their other space animation, WALL-E, holds a 95% rating.
Box office and rating success may be the two most important targets for Lightyear, but awards could also be in the future for the space ranger. Both Toy Story 3 and 4 won the Oscar for Best Animated Feature, and Lightyear will surely be a frontrunner for the award in 2023. Longevity will also be a key measure of success for Lightyear, with 1995’s Toy Story still holding up almost 30 years since its release. The standards set by the Toy Story franchise will be tough for Lightyear to meet, but the global recognizability of Buzz Lightyear and Pixar’s storytelling expertise give it every chance to be a box office smash that will be critically well-received.
