How Will Shogun End? 8 Clues & Theories

The celebrated historical epic series Shōgun is set to conclude on April 23, 2024. With only two episodes left of Shōgun, the critically acclaimed series is poised to have an exceptional conclusion that will finally see Toranaga’s long-term strategy come to life in a captivating and explosive fashion. The penultimate episode of the 10-part miniseries will pick up right where Shōgun episode 8 “The Abyss of Life” left off after the shocking sacrifice of Hiromatsu. Based on its title “Crimson Sky” Shōgun episode 9 should feature the unfolding of Toranaga’s master plan to attack Osaka with his army from Edo.

After suffering two great losses in the most recent Shōgun episodes, Toranaga appears to finally be in a position where he has the element of surprise on his side. Following an uncomfortable moment with her arranged husband Buntaro, Lady Mariko is ready to fulfill her duty to Toranaga, which will send her into the lion’s den of Osaka to reunite with her old friend, Ochiba-no-kata. Meanwhile, Ishido believes he has won Ochiba-no-kata’s hand in marriage by the end of Shōgun episode 8, hinting that he is more powerful than ever. Toranaga has proven to be many steps ahead of his opponents and even his allies in Shōgun, which should all come to a head in the final two episodes.

8

Toranaga’s Crimson Sky Plan Will Take Full Effect

Blackthorne could play a secret crucial role in Osaka

It’s no surprise that Crimson Sky will take full effect in Shōgun episode 9 based on its title, but it will still be magnificent to watch Toranaga’s master plan unfold in the lion’s den of Osaka. Based on the Shōgun episode 9 teaser trailer, Lady Mariko will play an integral part in setting the stage for what is set to be a surprise attack on Osaka from Lord Toranaga’s army and Blackthorne’s cannons. Buntaro should get with the program as well, since he had no other clear purpose in life after a devastating episode 8.

During the last few episodes of Shōgun, Blackthorne appears to be at odds with Toranaga over his decision to surrender in Osaka. It could be revealed that Blackthorne is actually in on Toranaga’s plan and is expected to fulfill a much different role in Osaka once they get inside the city’s walls. After all, Blackthorne did safely escort Toranaga out of Osaka in the first place and saved his life during an earthquake, which has to show for something. Yabushige, however, is very much under the impression that Toranaga is willing to surrender, which is exactly where Toranaga wants the two-faced daimyo.

7

Yabushige Switches Allegiances In Osaka

Toranaga could be expecting Yabushige to betray him

It could very well be that Toranaga is banking on the untrustworthy Yabushige to betray him in Osaka, which he should somehow use to his advantage. Despite retaining him as a daimyo, Toranaga has always seen through Yabushige’s dishonest tactics and was well aware of his dealing with Ishido earlier in the series. It will be interesting to see where Omi lands in the conflict if Yabushige does end up betraying Toranaga in Osaka. Omi was a friend of Nagakado and has been loyal to Toranaga throughout, but unless he is fully aware of Toranaga’s plan, he may be swayed to join the “winning” side by his deceitful uncle.

6

Buntaro Goes Beast Mode During Siege Of Osaka

The samurai’s pain and rage could all come out of the battlefield

Buntaro has had a particularly tragic arc following the events of Shōgun episode 8. He was forced to second his father Hiromatsu while he was committing seppuku and was crushed by his wife Mariko when he offered for them to die honorably together in protest of Toranaga’s surrender. Mariko had told Buntaro, who had beaten her in a previous episode with the notable sake scene with him and Blackthorne, that she would rather live a thousand years in shame and dishonor than enter oblivion with Buntaro.

While the samurai clearly has some anger issues and potentially PTSD from battle, he may find that the only way to regain a sense of purpose in his life is to go absolutely ballistic on the battlefield and lead the charge during Crimson Sky. A scene in which Toranaga inspires this purpose in Buntaro would make sense in Shōgun episode 9, and the tragic character could end up providing one of the most reverting action sequences in the entire series.

5

Mariko Sacrifices Herself In Osaka For Toranaga

Mariko could die honorably for Toranaga’s benefit

Like Buntaro, Mariko looks to find honor in her life in the best way that she knows, which at this point could be performing the ultimate sacrifice in service of Lord Toranaga. It has been proven that Toranaga’s most loyal allies are more than willing to die to preserve his honor and legacy, which was most emphasized by Hiromatsu’s sacrifice and somewhat by Nagakado’s death. It’s unclear whether Nagakado had intentionally meant to die when he attacked his uncle Saeki, but either way, his death inadvertently earned his father a 49-day grace period to mourn and build up his resources in Edo.

Mariko has a personal history with Ochiba-no-kata since they were both daughters of esteemed lords before Mariko’s father killed Ochiba’s father. One of the most compelling conversations to come will be between Ochiba and Mariko since it will greatly determine Mariko’s fate. It’s more than likely that Ochiba will not be so forgiving to Mariko upon her arrival in Osaka, or that Ishido will prevent her from leaving the city to use as leverage against Toranaga. Toranaga sent Mariko to Osaka on a very direct mission which could end in her sacrificing herself honorably similar to Hiromatsu.

4

Toranaga Becomes The New Shōgun Of Feudal Japan

It seems like Toranaga becoming the victor in Shōgun is inevitable even though he claimed earlier in the series that he was not interested in the throne. Based on his Minowara ancestry, Toranaga is surely compelled to establish his own shogunate and extend his royal family’s bloodline. It’s been well-established that Toranaga is based on the real-life shogun Tokugawa Iyeasu, whose shogunate ruled Japan for over 230 years. A major difference, however, is that Tokugawa Iyeasu’s son did not die in real life, and actually became shogun after his father.

Given that the outcome of Toranaga becoming shogun is almost certain in the Hulu and FX series, the most compelling part of the final two episodes will be finding out how exactly Toranaga is able to defeat Ishido and Ochiba-no-kata during the Siege of Osaka. Since there was an image of Toranaga dressed in shogunate attire that was released before the series even came out, the series will likely go in that direction. It will be interesting to see just how much combat Toranaga engages in during Crimson Sky and what role Blackthorne will play during the Siege of Osaka.

3

Lord Ishido Is Sentenced To Death By Toranaga

Toranaga will prove that Ishido came from nothing and is nothing

Ishido has navigated his way up the political ranks after being appointed to the Council of Regents by the Taiko and now appears to be more powerful than ever. It’s not entirely clear by the end of Shōgun episode 8 whether or not Ochiba-no-kata accepted his marriage proposal, but something about Lady Dayoin’s final words to Ochiba about “ending the games” played by Ishido and the Council of Regents hints that she is truly not vested in Ishido’s rise to power. It’s likely that she is using him for his support to defeat Toranaga but has no actual motive to marry a man who has no honorable lineage.

If Toranaga’s Crimson Sky efforts succeed, then Ishido will have to be sentenced to death. There is no world in which Toranaga will forgive Ishido after turning his own brother against him and exhausting every effort to snub Toranaga from his rightful throne. It would be shocking if Ishido survives the series since he truly serves no purpose to either Toranaga or Ochiba-no-kata and ultimately stands in both of their ways of supreme rulership.

2

Toranaga Vows To Look After Ochiba-no-kata’s Son

Toranaga is still honorable and likely won’t punish the Taiko’s child

Although Ochiba-no-kata will likely be forced to submit to Lord Toranaga by the end of Shōgun, it feels unlike Toranaga to sentence her son, the Heir apparent, to death. As for Ochiba-no-kata, she could find another purpose under the Toranaga shogunate if she were willing to accept that her son was no longer the Heir. It’s even possible that Ochiba-no-kata could become a consort to Toranaga like she was to the Taiko, but this may not be possible based on the bad blood Ochiba has towards Toranaga because she’s convinced he was behind the death of her father many years ago. Apart from losing to Toranaga, the fate of Ochiba-no-kata remains somewhat of a mystery in the final two episodes of Shogun.

1

Blackthorne Stays In Japan & Works Under Toranaga

Blackthorne & Toranaga should reaffirm their connection

While Blackthorne has had an unusual experience in Japan, to say the least, his allegiance to Toranaga should still hold strong in the final two episodes of Shōgun. It’s more than likely that Blackthorne will still be in charge of Toranaga’s cannon regiment and has only been “stripped” of his role as general and Hatamoto to fool Yabushige, Ishido, and Ochiba-no-kata. Blackthorne has been one of the greatest allies to Toranaga, especially considering that Toranaga essentially owes his life to him. A reaffirmation of their connection and appreciation for each other is bound to happen in the last two episodes of Shōgun.