The Exorcist: Believer has a good chance of making back its budget at the box office, but the franchise’s costly rights are another story. Upon its 1973 release, William Friedkin’s The Exorcist quickly garnered a reputation as one of the greatest horror movies ever made, eventually earning over $400 million on its $13 million budget. While none of the movie’s follow-up sequels nor its 2000s prequels came close to recapturing the original film’s box office success, the franchise’s fortunes may be about to turn with the upcoming Exorcist: Believer.
The film, from Halloween reboot trilogy director David Gordon Green, will skip over the continuity of the two Exorcist sequels, positioning itself as a direct follow-up to the original film (much like 2018’s Halloween did with the Halloween franchise’s continuity). The movie will see the parents of two demonically possessed children turn to the only living person who has experienced the same thing, Chris McNeil (played by 90-year-old Ellen Burstyn in her first franchise appearance since the original Exorcist). The film comes from a director and a studio with a proven track record for keeping costs low. However, the franchise rights deal puts pressure on the film’s financial success.
The Exorcist: Believer’s Budget Is Estimated To Be $20 Million
While an official budget for The Exorcist: Believer hasn’t yet been confirmed, it’s likely in the ballpark of $20 million. This figure comes from an examination of other Blumhouse budgets as well as an appraisal of the film’s franchise potential. Production company Blumhouse’s extremely successful track record comes from keeping budgets low for its horror features. The highest known budget for a Blumhouse film, a modest $20 million, has only ever been applied to Glass and Halloween Kills, two recognizable IPs with guaranteed audiences.
It’s likely that The Exorcist: Believer, a prestigious legacy IP, will land on the higher end of Blumhouse’s budget scale. Considering the studio’s plan to see The Exorcist: Believer as the first in a trilogy of Exorcist movies, it makes sense to give the film enough money to confidently announce the trilogy’s arrival. Yet the traditionally low production costs of horror movies, as well as Blumhouse’s own fiscal risk aversion, means there’s no reason to suspect it will go over $20 million.
The Exorcist: Believer Needs To Make At Least $50 Million At The Box Office To Succeed
The general rule of thumb when calculating a film’s combined production and marketing costs is to double the title’s production budget. However, while horror films are generally able to keep production costs low, they’re obliged to spend more on publicity and advertising in order to compete with other mainstream releases. As such, The Exorcist: Believer’s break-even point is likely closer to 2.5x production costs, or $50 million. Yet the film has another price tag attached; Universal paid $400 million for the distribution rights to the planned Exorcist trilogy for streaming on their service, Peacock.
As such, a sequel to The Exorcist: Believer is all but guaranteed; however, there’s even greater pressure on the film to make money. Nevertheless, the film’s box office chances are good, with Deadline forecasting a weekend opening of at least $30 million, a record high for the horror franchise. The Exorcist: Believer is smartly releasing in October, where proximity to Halloween generally drives up horror attendance. The film was supposed to be released even closer to the holiday, but was scared off by the impending release of Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour.
