UPDATE: Here’s the official list of Golden Globes winners in 2019!
Join us as we try to predict the 2019 Golden Globes winners on the movie side. The Golden Globes are the first major film and television awards out of the gate every new year. And, as is always the case when a show is the first one out of the gate, that means the winners at the Golden Globes often set a precedent for future awards ceremonies to come – mostly notably, the annual Academy Awards or Oscars.
By now, the current awards season has taken its share of twists and turns on the movie side alone. Expected contenders like Damien Chazelle’s First Man and Steve McQueen’s Widows have struggled to gain traction, even as Spike Lee’s BlacKkKlansman, Yorgos Lanthimos’ The Favourite, Bradley Cooper’s A Star is Born, and Ryan Coogler’s Black Panther have all raced to the front of the pack. Of course, some of these frontrunners are ahead of their immediate competitors and are projected to take home the biggest prizes of the evening, come Golden Globes Sunday.
Related: Black Panther & A Quiet Place Among PGA Best Picture Nominees
At the same time, it can be difficult to accurately predict the Golden Globes’ outcome, given the idiosyncratic tendencies of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (see also: when the HFPA nominated films like The Martian and Get Out for Best Comedy/Musical in years past). Nevertheless, we’ll have a go at determining this year’s final results. Here are our Predictions for the 2019 Golden Globes Movie Winners.
- This Page: Best Motion Picture, Actor & Actress
- Page 2: Best Supporting Actor/Actress, Director & Screenplay
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Nominees
- Black Panther
- BlacKkKlansman
- Bohemian Rhapsody
- If Beale Streat Could Talk
- A Star Is Born
Who Will Win: A Star is Born
Who Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Should Have Been a Contender: Widows, First Man
There was some pushback against Cooper’s remake early on, but any real controversy around A Star is Born has since been dwarfed by the responses to films like Vice and Green Book (which we’ll get to shortly). A Star is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody are the only true box office hits in this category too… though, Cooper’s film definitely has the advantage over the polarizing Queen biopic. Barry Jenkins’ If Beal Street Could Talk only started its box office run a couple weeks back, so it stands to gain the most commercially from a surprise victory here. Then again, neither Jenkins nor Lee’s latest offerings are really being heralded as breakthroughs for them the way Cooper’s directorial debut is – something that gives A Star is Born yet another leg-up over its biggest rivals.
On the other hand: Black Panther was a true cultural phenomenon, and an unexpected win here would certainly shake up this year’s Best Picture Oscar race. Still, even if it goes home empty-handed this Sunday, at least T’Challa’s solo adventure got some recognition. The same cannot be said for Chazelle and McQueen’s latest acclaimed projects, both of which may’ve been hurt by their disappointing performances at the box office.
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Nominees
- Crazy Rich Asians
- The Favourite
- Green Book
- Mary Poppins Returns
- Vice
Who Will Win: The Favourite
Who Should Win: The Favourite
Should Have Been a Contender: Paddington 2
Crazy Rich Asians and Mary Poppins Returns are easily the biggest crowd-pleasers in this category, but neither one is a favorite to win the way, er, The Favourite is. The latter also has an advantage in that it’s directed by the Greek satirist Lanthimos, and in years past the HFPA has very much had a soft spot for distinctly European movies and shows. It’s almost surprising that the (very) British sequel Paddington 2 didn’t secure a nomination in this category for the same reason – though, considering it was up against a satirical Dick Cheney biopic and a movie about a real-life interracial friendship, maybe not so much.
Speaking of which: Green Book was expected to be this year’s Hidden Figures early on, until the debate about the film’s (lack of) accuracy and white-centric viewpoint took off and Peter Farrelly’s movie under-whelmed with its financial performance. Adam McKay’s Vice has only just begun its box office run, but it’s another movie that seems way too polarizing to take a win in this category. An upset is always a possibility, but for now it feels like The Favourite is pretty much a lock for this one.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Nominees
- Glenn Close, The Wife
- Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
- Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
- Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- Rosamund Pike, A Private War
Who Will Win: Lady Gaga
Who Should Win: Melissa McCarthy
Should Have Been a Contender: Cynthia Erivo, Bad Times at the El Royale
Over the decades, A Star is Born has become somewhat infamous for being a means to an end for its leads to take home some big awards. Judy Garland and Barbara Streisand both won Golden Globes for their performances in the 1954 and 1976 versions of the film, respectively, and Gaga looks to follow suit for the 2018 iteration. Still, McCarthy shouldn’t be entirely discounted in this category. Her performance as biographer turned literary forger Lee Israel is a great example of how a comedic actor can still be funny in a more serious role, and doubles as a nice reminder of how good McCarthy is at drama in general (see also: her past work in films like St. Vincent).
Kidman and Close are equally deserving of their nominations, but have won Golden Globes before (multiple ones, in fact) and are unlikely to derail Gaga for the very same reason. Pike’s only been nominated for a Globe once before (for Gone Girl), but doesn’t seem to have enough momentum behind her to land a dark horse victory, either. As for Erivo: it would’ve been great to see her nominated for her own terrific singing and acting in the under-appreciated Bad Times at the El Royale. Of course, the story may change next year, after Erivo plays Harriet Tubman in Kasi Lemmons’ forthcoming biopic.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Nominees
- Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
- Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
- Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
- Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
- John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
Who Will Win: Bradley Cooper
Who Should Win: Bradley Cooper
Should Have Been a Contender: Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here
Like Gaga, Cooper is a frontrunner to win for his A Star is Born performance. He’s been nominated for Golden Globe acting awards twice already, so third time should indeed be the charm – keeping Cooper firmly on track to win that Oscar he’s been angling towards, in the process. The actor-turned filmmaker doesn’t really have a lot of competition in this category, either. Washington, Dafoe, and Hedges were all widely applauded for their performances this past year, but nothing on the level with Cooper’s turn as a fading alcoholic rock star. Malek, meanwhile, was celebrated for his own rock star performance early on, before his awards buzz cooled in the wake of Bohemian Rhapsody‘s heavily criticized portrayal of Freddie Mercury and his life.
By comparison, Phoenix failed to make the cut altogether for his acclaimed turn as a traumatized veteran-turned hired gun in You Were Never Really Here. He’s been nominated for a Golden Globe several times already and even won for Walk the Line, so that may partly explain why the HFPA overlooked him this year. Heck, if Joker goes over well, Phoenix might find himself back in the race this time in 2020.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Nominees
- Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
- Olivia Colman, The Favourite
- Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
- Charlize Theron, Tully
- Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians
Who Will Win: Olivia Coleman
Who Should Win: Olivia Coleman
Should Have Been a Contender: Blake Lively, A Simple Favor
Awards season prognosticators have been predicting that Coleman will win all the awards since The Favourite had its festival premiere, and with valid reason. Coleman’s performance as Queen Anne plays to her strengths as a great character actor who can be dead serious just as easily as utterly goofy, and the film at large is a great showcase for her talents. This category is a great collection of performances in general, not least of all because they’re strikingly different from one another. Fisher in particular is a youngster who’s hopefully just getting started, and it’s nice to see Wu gaining more recognition after her years of great work on Fresh Off the Boat (which she received her previous Globe nomination for).
All things considered, though, this feels like Coleman’s category to lose. She’s earning the loudest buzz of the five contenders right now, and that shouldn’t change after Golden Globes night, either. Nevertheless, it would’ve been fun if Blake Lively had managed to sneak into the nominees for her performances as a cheeky femme fatale in Paul Feig’s farcical take on the Gone Girl formula (or whatever you want to call A Simple Favor).
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Nominees
- Christian Bale, Vice
- Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns
- Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
- Robert Redford, The Old Man & the Gun
- John C. Reilly, Stan & Ollie
Who Will Win: Robert Redford
Who Should Win: John C. Reilly
Should Have Been a Contender: Hugh Grant, Paddington 2
Surprisingly, Redford’s only ever won a (regular) Globe for his direction on 1980’s Ordinary People, and his sole previous Golden Globe movie acting nomination came in 2014 for All is Lost. The Sundance Kid went back and forth a bit on whether he’s really retiring while promoting The Old Man & the Gun, but frankly it’s hard to imagine a more fitting performance to go out on than his charismatic turn as a gentlemanly bank robber who simply loves what he does for a living. Point being: this is probably the last time the HFPA will get a chance to honor him, and the odds seem in favor of them taking it.
Keeping that in mind, this category is more of a open race, comparatively speaking. Bale previously won a Globe for his performance in The Fighter, but that was a win in Drama, so the HFPA may yet recognize his “comedic” take on Dick Cheney instead. Miranda is an internationally renowned talent and shouldn’t be counted out either, even if this is his first acting nomination (his previous nomination was for Original Song on Moana). The goes double for Reilly, who – Holmes and Watson aside, which we’ll forgive him for – brought his A-game to 2018 releases like The Sisters Brothers, Stan & Ollie, and even Ralph Breaks the Internet. Mortensen would be the only real upset here, in light of the diminished buzz around Green Book right now.
And last, but not least, Grant was always a long shot for a nomination this year… but, frankly, he deserved a spot for Paddington 2‘s musical mid-credits scene alone.
Next Page: Best Supporting Actor/Actress, Director & Screenplay
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Nominees
- Amy Adams, Vice
- Claire Foy, First Man
- Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
- Emma Stone, The Favourite
- Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Who Will Win: Regina King
Who Should Win: Regina King
Should Have Been a Contender: Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians
There’s a discussion to be had about whether Stone and Weiz are really supporting players in The Favourite or whether they’ve been designated such just so they don’t have to compete with Coleman directly. Either way, they’re both great in the film and deserved to be nominated at the Golden Globes, as do Foy and Adams as the determined women behind their films’ more famous male subjects. Nevertheless, King has the most momentum right now and with good reason: she does standout work as the Rivers family’s matriarch, even in a film that’s full of emotionally rich and sensitive performances (right on down to Brian Tyree Henry’s brief appearance). King actually landed Golden Globes nominations in both movie and TV categories this year, and it’s great to see her getting recognized after a career of fine character acting.
Speaking of memorable movie matriarchs: Crazy Rich Asians is, in some ways, as much Yeoh’s film as it is Wu’s, and she too deserved to be nominated for her performance in the hit rom-com. Oddly enough, Yeoh’s never actually been nominated for a Golden Globe before, so here’s hoping that changes in the foreseeable future. (There are still two Crazy Rich Asians sequels on the way, after all.)
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Nominees
- Mahershala Ali, Green Book
- Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
- Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- Sam Rockwell, Vice
- Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Who Will Win: Richard E. Grant
Who Should Win: Richard E. Grant
Should Have Been a Contender: Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
Grant is one of those character actors who tends to leave an impression with his movie and TV show appearances, no matter how small. In this regard, it’s no surprise that he’s excellent as McCarthy’s delightfully incorrigible drinking buddy from Can You Ever Forgive Me?, and has been the supporting actor awards season frontrunner for months now. This is also his first Golden Globe nomination, which gives Grant an advantage over Rockwell (who won in this category just last year) and arguably Ali, who was nominated but didn’t win the Globe for Moonlight, two years back. Grant’s already been awarded by several critic associations too, which puts him all the further ahead of the competition, Chalamet and Driver included (their own fine performances aside).
The only shock – especially in light of A Star is Born‘s frontrunner status overall – is that Elliott isn’t among the nominees in this area. His screen time may be limited, but his role in Cooper’s musician melodrama is an essential part of the film’s emotional core, and has been widely celebrated for it. We’ll have to wait and see if the story’s different when the Academy announces this year’s Oscar nominations.
Best Director – Motion Picture
Nominees
- Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
- Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
- Peter Farrelly, Green Book
- Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
- Adam McKay, Vice
Who Will Win: Bradley Cooper
Who Should Win: Alfonso Cuarón
Should Have Been a Contender: Debra Granik, Leave No Trace
While we’re predicting Cooper to win for both acting in and directing A Star is Born, this category is less of a surefire bet. Cuarón won a Golden Globe for directing Gravity five years ago, but his efforts on Roma are impressive (and celebrated) enough that the HFPA may decide to go ahead and give him the award a second time this year. Lee, in a twist, hasn’t even been nominated for a Golden Globe since his work on Do the Right Thing nearly thirty years ago, so it’s possible the HFPA will correct that by giving BlacKkKlansman the win. Farrelly and McKay, on the other hand, don’t really seem to have a shot in this category based on the divisive responses to their work behind the camera – but again, it’s the Golden Globes, and stranger things have happened.
Yet again, however, the HFPA has failed to nominate a single female director for the Golden Globe. Of the many worthy candidates, Granik is perhaps the most deserving for her work on Leave No Trace: a quiet film that manages to say a whole lot and leave a lasting impact, in opposition to its title. Filmmaker Jane Campion is even championing Granik for an Oscar nomination this year, so there’s room yet for the Academy to do what the HFPA didn’t (again).
Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
Nominees
- Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
- Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite
- Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
- Adam McKay, Vice
- Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Green Book
Who Will Win: Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
Who Should Win: Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
Should Have Been a Contender: Gillian Flynn & Steve McQueen, Widows
In a category that includes multiple frontrunners, The Favourite jumps out as the nominee where the screenplay is most important to its success. Davis and McNamara’s script is full of bitingly humorous exchanges, and its chaptered structure makes the narrative feel all the more unconventional in design. By comparison, Roma is far more visually driven and If Beale Street Could Talk‘s potency (arguably) comes from its photography as much as James Baldwin’s adapted dialogue. Of course, the HFPA might feel otherwise and could pull a fast one by giving McKay the win here – after his script for The Big Short failed to take home a screenwriting Globe three years ago – or handing the award to either Jenkins or Cuarón (neither of whom have won Globes for their writing before).
Once again, that leaves Green Book as the true dark horse nominee… but again, they’re called dark horse candidates for a reason and sometimes pull out surprise victories. At least all five of these screenplays got nominated, unlike Flynn and McQueen’s tightly constructed script for Widows. Cooper’s A Star is Born screenplay didn’t make the cut either, making this one of the few major categories where it’s not in the running.
Best Motion Picture – Animated
Nominees
- Incredibles 2
- Isle of Dogs
- Mirai
- Ralph Breaks the Internet
- Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Who Will Win: Into the Spider-Verse
Who Should Win: Into the Spider-Verse
Should Have Been a Contender: The Grinch
Even if 2018 hadn’t been something of an underwhelming year for animation, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse would’ve still been the obvious pick to win Best Animated Feature at every major awards show. In a year of respectable studio animated sequels and characteristically unique offerings from Mamoru Hosoda and Wes Anderson, Into the Spider-Verse blew away most everyone’s expectations to become one of the most talked about and celebrated films of the year (period). Even those who were hyped for Miles Morales’ big screen debut were impressed by just how audacious, inventive, heartfelt, and funny his animated superhero adventure ended up being.
All that said, we’re going to go ahead and give a shout-out to The Grinch for missing the cut in this category. No, it wouldn’t have won had it been included, but it was an unapologetically kid-friendly take on the Dr. Seuss classic with lovely animation and a surprisingly modern outlook. Also, a screaming goat, if that’s your thing.
Other Categories
Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language
Nominees
- Capernaum
- Girl
- Never Look Away
- Roma
- Shoplifters
Predicted Winner: Roma
Should Win: Roma
No real competition here. Roma is the clear frontrunner and if it has any Golden Globe in the bag, it’s this one.
Best Original Score – Motion Picture
Nominees
- A Quiet Place
- Isle of Dogs
- Black Panther
- First Man
- Mary Poppins Returns
Predicted Winner: Mary Poppins Returns
Should Win: First Man
Since Mary Poppins Returns is unlikely to take home any of the night’s biggest prizes, this could be where the HFPA decides to recognize the film.
Best Original Song – Motion Picture
Nominees
- “All the Stars”, Black Panther
- “Girl in the Movies”, Dumplin’
- “Requiem for a Private War”, A Private War
- “Revelation”, Boy Erased
- “Shallow”, A Star Is Born
Predicted Winner: “Shallow”
Should Win: “All the Stars”
This category feels like a shoo-in for A Star is Born, barring an upset by Black Panther‘s hit tune.
MORE: Oscars 2019 Best Picture Predictions
The Golden Globe Awards air Sunday, January 6 on NBC at 7/6c.
