Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery opened on November 23 to an impressive box office performance, which could signal a change in Netflix’s approach to theatrical releases. In order to meet Oscars eligibility, Knives Out 2 received a one-week limited theatrical release which was promoted by Netflix as a “sneak preview.” The film is set to drop exclusively for streaming on Netflix on December 23, repeating the rollout for Netflix’s star-studded 2021 Best Picture nominee Don’t Look Up. Considering 2019’s Knives Out was a massive success at the box office, earning $312.9 million worldwide, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that Glass Onion did extremely well during its short theatrical stint.
Despite being available in fewer than 700 theaters across North America, Glass Onion opened as the third-highest-grossing film at the domestic box office over the extended Thanksgiving weekend, falling behind Disney’s wide releases Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Strange World. Knives Out 2 wasn’t expected to earn a top-three slot at the box office due to its extremely limited theatrical release and forthcoming premiere on Netflix, but its successful performance indicates Netflix could have topped the box office charts by a significant margin had it received a wide release. Considering Netflix still has Knives Out 3 in the waiting, the box office success of Glass Onion could mean future big-budget films will finally receive wide theatrical releases.
How Much Money Glass Onion Made At The Box Office (& Why It’s So Impressive)
While Netflix didn’t report any official box office numbers, The Hollywood Reporter revealed that the estimates from Hollywood executives place Glass Onion’s five-day opening weekend box office total at approximately $13 million. Glass Onion was only available in fewer than 700 theaters from November 23-29, so the fact that it managed to earn such an impressive ticket sales opposite Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Strange World – both of which opened in over 4,000 theaters globally – is a major feat for Rian Johnson’s sequel. Knives Out 2’s success now makes it the highest-grossing Netflix opening to date, perhaps changing the studio’s theatrical approach.
Glass Onion’s box office performance also signals a big mistake for Netflix, as experts estimate that the film could have earned at least $40 million on its opening weekend had the studio given it a wide release. Since Netflix didn’t report Glass Onion’s official box grosses, it’s possible that the Knives Out sequel performed even better than suggested, potentially outperforming the $18.6 million-earning box office bomb Strange World. The next big theatrical release doesn’t arrive until Avatar: The Way of Water on December 16, so Glass Onion could have battled Black Panther 2 for residual box office numbers after its Thanksgiving opening.
Could Glass Onion Have Made More Money Than Knives Out?
In the modern movie-going climate, sequels are well-known for outperforming the box office of the original, and Rian Johnson’s Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery wasn’t likely to be an exception. Without Netflix’s original numbers, it’s difficult to discern exactly how well Glass Onion would have performed on a wide release similar to the rollout of Knives Out. However, experts’ estimates that the sequel could have debuted to around $50 million at the box office indicate Glass Onion could have had a more successful premiere than the original, which grossed $41.7 million over its five-day opening weekend.
Despite going up against Frozen II, Jumanji: Next Level, and eventually Star Wars: Episode IX – The Rise of Skywalker, Knives Out earned another $270 million before ending its theatrical run. In contrast, Glass Onion’s main competition would be Black Panther 2, Avatar: The Way of Water, and Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, which aren’t targeting the same audience. The positively-reviewed Glass Onion could have performed particularly well in early December, likely concluding its theatrical run by recouping much of the $450 million Netflix paid to acquire the franchise. The movie-going climate isn’t the same as it was 2019, but a star-studded sequel like Glass Onion could perform as well as, if not slightly better than, the original film.
Did Netflix Make A Mistake? Why Glass Onion’s Release Was Still Smart
While Netflix likely missed out on tens of thousands, if not a few hundred million, in box office earnings for Glass Onion, the movie’s release strategy wasn’t a mistake. Netflix had yet to release a blockbuster sequel in theaters, so Glass Onion is more of a test run to assess the viability of wider theatrical rollouts in the studio’s future. The movie could have made significantly more money in a wider rollout, but Netflix hasn’t lost out on the franchise’s commercial success yet – the studio still has one more Rian Johnson-directed Knives Out sequel on the line-up. Glass Onion’s release was still smart, as it could be the success story that finally changes Netflix’s approach to theatrical release.
Netflix typically uses the box office performance of its limited releases to gauge how successful they will be when hitting the streaming service, so Glass Onion’s “sneak preview” is still a major win for the studio. The popularity of the sequel’s limited release indicates that Glass Onion will be an even bigger hit on Netflix, especially since Rian Johnson’s murder mystery begins streaming at the peak of the holidays. Netflix has notably struggled with retaining subscribers throughout 2022, so the buzz around the movie’s theatrical debut is good news for higher demand upon Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery‘s Netflix release.
What Glass Onion’s Box Office Means For Netflix’s Future (Including Knives Out 3)
Although Netflix was reportedly eyeing Glass Onion as an official test for the studio’s wide releases, the sequel’s limited release arguably achieved the result that a full-scale test was seeking: Validation that Netflix films can still be huge at the box office. Netflix may be worrying about what wide theatrical releases would mean for potentially losing subscribers, yet streamers like Disney Plus and HBO Max manage to keep subscription numbers high despite debuting movies after 45-day exclusive theatrical windows. Rather than completely changing its model, Netflix could consider making annual exceptions for wide streaming releases.
Netflix’s Leonardo DiCaprio-starring 2021 film Don’t Look Up likely would have performed well in theaters until the release of Spider-Man: No Way Home, with Glass Onion undoubtedly outperforming the Adam McKay hit the following year. The Daniel Craig-starring Knives Out 3 is expected to premiere in 2024, so the streamer still has around two years to assess the practicability of giving the movie a wide release. The decision likely depends on how much more money the streaming release of Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery brings Netflix after December, but the Benoit Blanc mystery’s box office success certainly makes a full theatrical treatment for Knives Out 3 and future blockbusters more likely.
