Free Guy is expected to top the box office in its opening weekend, but with a debut that’s half of Jungle Cruise’s. After movie theaters endured an exceptionally difficult 2020, there were encouraging signs the theatrical marketplace was on the road to recovery throughout the first half of 2021. Highly-anticipated movies such as A Quiet Place Part II, F9, and Black Widow all broke pandemic era box office records, illustrating an interest to see films on the big screen. Unfortunately, concerns over the spreading COVID-19 Delta variant have made viewers feel less comfortable returning to theaters over the past few weeks.
The Delta variant has already had an impact on Hollywood, with Clifford the Big Red Dog and Venom: Let There Be Carnage getting delayed due to new cases spiking across the country. Many in the industry are curious to see what effect Delta has on the box office, looking at Ryan Reynolds’ Free Guy as a possible barometer for commercial expectations moving forward. Based on the latest projections, the new film’s numbers could pale in comparison to a recent hit.
Per The Wrap, Free Guy is expected to earn $15-17 million domestically in its opening weekend. The high end of those estimates are about half of what Disney’s Jungle Cruise earned over its first three days ($35 million). This weekend’s other new releases, Don’t Breathe 2 and Respect, are projected to gross $8-10 million and $7-9 million, respectively.
Considering the circumstances, it’s hard to label Free Guy as a disappointment in the traditional sense. Even before the Delta spread, everyone knew it was going to take some time for the box office to reach 2019 levels again, and original IPs like Free Guy weren’t always a sure thing pre-pandemic. However, it is disheartening to see its projections so far below Jungle Cruise, which proved to be a pleasant surprise by exceeding expectations in its opening weekend. It shows theaters still have a long way to go, and while there have been some positive steps taken this year, the threat of COVID-19 remains a very serious part of reality. Hopefully, things will improve soon, but for now it’s difficult for studios to count on box office grosses.
Unlike Black Widow, Free Guy is not receiving a Disney+ Premier Access release, instead playing as a theatrical exclusive for a 45-day window. That obviously means Disney has one less revenue stream to bank on to measure Free Guy’s initial financial success. The Premier Access strategy has proven to be controversial (most notably with Scarlett Johansson’s Black Widow lawsuit), but there’s no denying it helped boost Black Widow and Jungle Cruise’s bottom lines. Premier Access likely would have done the same for Free Guy had Disney opted for that route, but it will be interesting to see how it performs. Free Guy did score excellent reviews, so word-of-mouth is strong heading into the weekend.
Key Release Dates
Free Guy
Release Date:2021-08-13
