Avatar: The Way of Water Can’t Keep Up With Top Gun Maverick’s Box Office

Avatar: The Way of Water is one of the highest-grossing movies of all time, but can’t compete against Top Gun Maverick‘s domestic box office performance. Despite going on to become the third highest-grossing movie of all time at the global box office, Avatar: The Way of Water‘s domestic box office run is slowing to a halt, meaning it won’t be able to pass Top Gun: Maverick to become the fifth highest grossing movie at the domestic box office.

Top Gun: Maverick’s box office run was one of the biggest post-pandemic box office successes. It’s long box office run made made it one of the highest-grossing movies of all time and Steven Spielberg even told Tom Cruise he saved Hollywood, but since it didn’t get released in China, its global performance couldn’t keep up with Avatar: The Way of Water. As the Avatar sequel climbed the global box office ranks, it needed a big push to catch up to Top Gun: Maverick domestically, and based on The Way of Water‘s most recent trajectory, it doesn’t look like it’ll be able to catch the Top Gun sequel.

Avatar 2 And Top Gun: Maverick’s Box Office Has Been Neck and Neck

Avatar: The Way of Water and Top Gun: Maverick had incredibly similar domestic opening weekend box office numbers. The Way of Water‘s opening weekend box office was $134.1 million, while Top Gun: Maverick‘s opening weekend box office was $126.7 million. Despite Avatar: The Way of Water opening $12.6 million higher than Top Gun: Maverick, Maverick had a much stronger initial theatrical run, accumulating a domestic total of $266.6 million by its ninth day in the box office, $34.7 million more than Avatar: The Way of Water‘s $231.8 million. Despite Maverick stealing The Way of Water‘s opening weekend lead, Avatar 2 would proceed to close that gap anyway.

Thanks to a big holiday bump, Avatar: The Way of Water surged to $338 million by its 13th day in theaters, surpassing the $334 million Top Gun Maverick had accumulated at the same point in its run. The Way of Water continued to surge ahead of Maverick for more than nine weeks, growing its lead to a peak total of $54.8 million on its 23rd day in theaters. Top Gun: Maverick slowly closed the box office gap in the weeks after, but it took until day 78 for Avatar: The Way of Water‘s $667.8 million total to fall belowTop Gun: Maverick‘s $668.6 million total on its own 78th day in theaters.

Avatar 2 Blew Top Gun: Maverick’s Worldwide Box Office Out of the Water

While Top Gun: Maverick‘s powerful legs at the domestic box office proved too strong for Avatar: The Way of Water to keep up, its weaker international box office caused it to fall well below Avatar: The Way of Water‘s worldwide box office total. Top Gun: Maverick‘s $774.8 million international total accounted for just under 52 percent of its $1.49 billion global total, only enough to rank #12 all-time, just $27 million away from passingThe Avengers‘ $1.52 billion and entering the top 10 all-time. Meanwhile, Avater: The Way of Water‘s $1.61 billion internationally accounts for over 70 percent of its $2.28 billion global total, propelling it to #3 all-time.

Avatar: the Way of Water‘s international success comes from numerous regions around the world, even becoming the highest-grossing movie of all time in Europe, but its Chinese release is a major difference maker. China was the second-biggest territory for The Way of Water (after North America), bringing in an additional $244.6 million. Avatar 2‘s international success can’t simply be chalked up to China, though. Even if it didn’t get a Chinese release it’d still beat Top Gun: Maverick‘s international total by approximately $550 million.

Avatar 2 Can’t Beat Top Gun Maverick’s Domestic Box Office Without a Re-Release

Avatar: The Way of Water‘s box office legs are much stronger than every other top 10 film other than the other two directed by James Cameron, Titanic and the original Avatar, but its legs don’t seem like they’re strong enough to get it past Top Gun: Maverick; however, that doesn’t mean it can’t pass Maverick eventually. The original Avatar is still the highest-grossing movie of all time, but it briefly lost that title in 2019 after the release of Avengers: Endgame. Despite losing the top spot after a decade, Avatar had a successful Chinese re-release in 2021 bump it back into the top spot, and the same thing could boost Avatar: The Way of Water.

There’s no word yet on if Avatar: The Way of Water will hit theaters again in the near future, but James Cameron movies have a history of successful re-releases, and the original Avatar‘s first re-release, featuring an extended cut, happened immediately following its initial theatrical run. With Avatar 3 (rumored title: The Seed Bearer) due to arrive in theaters in December 2024, a re-release of The Way of Water in that time makes a lot of sense. Depending on how much it earns before the end of its run, an additional $20 million from a re-release could be all it needs to sneak ahead of Top Gun: Maverick.

Avatar 2’s Epic Box Office Run Isn’t Over Yet

Avatar: The Way of Water just passed its 12th weekend in theaters and has earned $670.6 million. At the same point in its run, Top Gun: Maverick had earned $673.7 million and earned an additional $46 million before the end of its run. The Way of Water is making less than Maverick on a day-to-day basis, but even if it matched that pace, it’d only be enough to bring it to around $716 million, over $2 million shy of Top Gun: Maverick‘s $718.7 domestic total. So, Avatar: The Way of Water will almost surely come in shy of Maverick, but its box office run is far from over.

The more likely scenario is Avatar: The Way of Water earns an additional $20-$30 million domestically by the end of its run, putting its domestic total close to $700 million, at least $18 million short of Top Gun: Maverick and $85 million short of the original Avatar‘s $718 million. Assuming its domestic box office continues to account for 30 percent of its global total (as it does now), a $700 million domestic box office would give Avatar: The Way of Water a $2.33 billion global total, just shy of our $2.5 billion prediction.

Avatar: The Way of Water may come short of Top Gun: Maverick‘s domestic box office, and Top Gun: Maverick may come up short of Avatar: The Way of Water‘s international total, but both movies are undeniable box office behemoths, and both arrived at a time when the theatrical industry was in desperate need of a shot in the arm. Whether or not Avatar: The Way of Water eventually gets a re-release pushing it ahead of Top Gun: Maverick, the Avatar franchise is clearly on the road to more box office success with three more Avatar sequels on the way.