A lot of big movies are being released in September, which has led to a ton of September 2023 box office predictions. The summer lineup of movies led to a number of surprises, such as the R-rated, three-hour biopic Oppenheimer grossing $800 million, Barbie becoming the highest-grossing movie of the year, and a shocking number of box office bombs. The Flash, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, and Haunted Mansion were just a few failures of summer 2023. However, the summer box office is now in the rearview mirror, and September’s releases could be more positive for the industry.
Outside a few notable horror movies such as Smile and Barbarian, there was very little going on at the box office in September 2022. This year more than makes up for it, as Expend4bles and seven other movies are releasing in September 2023. One of the big problems with the summer 2023 releases was that they had enormous budgets that made it impossible for them to break even. However, the September’s film budgets are much lower, and there’s the potential for some huge success stories (though box office bombs can be expected, too).
9 The Equalizer 3 Will Be The Lowest-Grossing Of The Franchise
The first two Equalizer movies had almost identical box office performances, with both earning slightly over $190 million (via The Numbers). While the reception of the franchise has been consistent, Equalizer 3’s opening could be a franchise low, as the threequel is projected to make $28-30 million during its opening weekend. There’s still a small chance that Equalizer 3 could reach $190 million worldwide, but with Denzel Washington not being able to promote the movie due to the SAG-AFTRA strike, it might fall slightly short and become the lowest-grossing movie in the series.
8 The Nun 2 Will Gross Around $200 Million
Following the success of the first movie, there’s a lot of fanfare surrounding The Nun 2. The Nun isn’t a franchise that relies on star power, so the movie likely won’t be affected by the SAG-AFTRA strike like other releases. However, The Nun 2’s opening weekend projection is $30 million (via The Economic Times), which is significantly less than The Nun’s $53 million opening weekend (via The Numbers). Nevertheless, while the movie might not reach its predecessor’s worldwide $363 million gross, it’ll likely make around $200 million. Insidious: The Red Door had a similar $33 million opening weekend earlier in the year, and that went on to gross $186 million
7 My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 Will Be A Modest Success
While the original My Big Fat Greek Wedding was a phenomenal success, making a huge $374 million in 2002, the threequel is projected to make just $8-13 million in its opening weekend (via Box Office Pro). My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 has tough competition, as it’s being released alongside The Nun 2. However, that’s perfect counter-programming, and there likely isn’t much crossover between the movies’ fanbases. If Barbenheimer weekend proved anything, it’s that box office competition can have a positive impact on movies. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 could go on to earn around $45 million domestically and a worldwide total of $70 million.
6 A Haunting In Venice Will Earn More Than Death On The Nile
Kenneth Branagh’s Hercule Poirot series has quietly become a high-grossing franchise. The previous two movies earned a combined $490 million worldwide (via The Numbers). While Death on the Nile only makes up for $137 million of that, the sequel was a victim of several COVID-19 delays, which negatively impacted its performance. There’s clearly a huge audience that loves the franchise, but A Haunting in Venice’s genre switch is a big risk, especially since The Nun 2, which is out a week earlier, will be competing for the same audience. Nevertheless, A Haunting in Venice will likely gross more than its predecessor, albeit marginally.
5 The Expendables 4’s R Rating Will Help Its Box Office Performance Despite Low Projections
Though the franchise saw revenues decline, Expend4bles has huge potential. The Expendables 3 was PG-13 with the intention of gaining a bigger audience. However, as the franchise’s biggest appeal is over-the-top violence, the PG-13 rating had a reverse effect, and the third film became the lowest-grossing movie. Expend4bles is R-rated, and that could be the determining factor when it comes to the movie’s success. Though long-range tracking hints that Expendables 4 could have the lowest domestic opening weekend of the franchise (via CBR), the series has always performed better internationally, accounting for between 62-81% of each movie’s total gross. In that respect, Expend4bles could earn around $250 million worldwide.
4 PAW Patrol 2 Will Gross More Than PAW Patrol Thanks To An Exclusive Theatrical Release
2021’s PAW Patrol: The Movie was a surprise success, making $151 million (via The Numbers), and Paw Patrol 2 should perform even better. Given that the sequel is an animated movie, there doesn’t need to be much promotion on the actors’ side. PAW Patrol 2 also benefits from an exclusive theatrical release, whereas the first movie had a day-and-date release on Paramount+. In that respect, PAW Patrol 2 should gross more than its predecessor providing the critical reception is just as high as the first movie’s. Kim Kardashian’s role will likely tip PAW Patrol 2 over the edge, thanks to her huge social media following.
3 Saw X Will Be The Highest-Grossing Saw Movie
While Saw is an established and iconic franchise, no movie in the series has ever been a phenomenal hit. The original Saw was a surprise success relative to its budget, but the highest-grossing Saw movie was Saw III with $165 million (via Box Office Mojo). While there have been some spikes since then, the Saw movies have been declining in popularity. Nevertheless, with two exceptions, every Saw film has broken through the $100 million mark. Given that Saw X marks the return of Kramer for the first time since 2017, the 2023 release could be Saw’s highest-grossing movie. At the very least, it should cross the $100 million threshold.
2 The Creator Will Be September’s Biggest Box Office Bomb
It’s hard to predict how successful The Creator will be. Where most major September films are part of established franchises or have clear indicators that lean one way or another, The Creator is the only original big-budget movie released in September. However, that itself might be enough of an indicator. Outside of Christopher Nolan movies, original big-budget sci-fi flicks often underperform at the box office. Although The Creator wears its Star Wars influences on its sleeve, that might not be enough to find an audience. Between its unclear title, not being tied to a franchise, and sharing its release date with Saw X, The Creator could be September’s biggest bomb.
1 Expendables 4 Will Be September 2023’s Biggest New Movie At The Box Office
September is a surprisingly busy month for movie releases, and there’s something being released that caters to every taste. While they all have a chance to become successful, Expendables 4 is at the top of the September 2023 box office predictions. Its potential box office total of $250 million is higher than any other competitor. Jason Statham is also in a more prominent role in Expend4bles, which is great news for the movie’s box office. The British actor has had one success after another in multiplexes. Despite The Meg 2’s critical scathing, the movie still made $354 million worldwide. That could be the same story for Expendables 4.
