Third-party viewership data reveals what’s really going on with the Star Wars Disney+ TV shows – and they’re repeating a problem we last saw with the Marvel Netflix shows. The Disney era of Star Wars has been a controversial one, and there’s intense debate over whether it should be considered a success. That’s particularly true with the latest Star Wars Disney+ TV show, The Acolyte, set a century before the Skywalker saga. The Acolyte has ignited a furious backlash, at times for the most absurd reasons. But the focus on the individual show is obscuring something much more important.

Luminate Data has published an excellent deep-dive into viewership stats comparing The Acolyte with other Star Wars TV shows. Although the focus is on The Acolyte, the most important chart goes a step further, and hints at something bigger.

One thing becomes immediately noticeable; according to Luminate, Disney’s Star Wars TV shows have been (almost consistently) losing viewers for years. What’s going on?

Viewers Are Interacting With Star Wars As A Brand, Not With Individual Shows

It’s quite common for each season of a continuous series to see reduced viewers; there’s an investment of time in catching up, while changes in format naturally mean some of the viewership base are no longer engaged, so the audience pool tends to shrink. It is, however, rather more unusual to see this pattern replicated across multiple different shows. Here at Screen Rant, though, we’ve seen it play out this way once before; with viewership of the Marvel Netflix shows. There, it indicated viewers were interacting with the Marvel Netflix shows as a body, rather than as individual series.

While we’ve all been focused on individual series – Is Ahsoka a success, is The Acolyte enough of a hit to get a second season? – we’ve been missing the real problem. It’s likely the Disney+ Star Wars shows are not appealing to a broadening fanbase at all, but rather to a gradually-diminishing core. Worse still, quality-drops will have an outscale impact, affecting the general viewership pattern, rather than just the show that made the misstep. The Marvel Netflix shows, for example, never recovered properly from Iron Fist season 1 or the disappointment of The Defenders.

The Mandalorian Is Likely An Exception To This Rule

There’s always an exception to every trend, of course. With the Marvel Netflix shows, the exceptions were Daredevil and The Punisher; both had high levels of brand recognition in their own right, and it doesn’t hurt that Daredevil was the launchpad for the entire Marvel Netflix range. In the case of Disney’s Star Wars shows, the exception is clearly The Mandalorian. Looking at Luminate’s data, The Mandalorian season 3 doesn’t fit the pattern of diminishing returns at all. That’s probably why Din Djarin and Grogu are headed to the big screen.

It makes sense that The Mandalorian would be an outlier. This was basically the Disney+ flagship show, with the premiere releasing alongside the launch of the entire Disney+ streaming service, and it has a sizable cultural footprint courtesy of the delightful Baby Yoda. In an unusual move, Disney chose to forego millions in terms of merch value by hiding Grogu’s existence until the premiere dropped; although this will have been expensive, it paid off in the long-term, securing The Mandalorian a strong sense of brand identity.

Can Disney’s Star Wars TV Shows Continue Like This?

Looking forward, what does this mean for the future? It’s been noticeable for some time that the future of Disney’s Star Wars TV shows is something of a mystery right now; we know there’ll be Star Wars: Skeleton Crew this year, and Andor season 2 next, but beyond that nothing is confirmed. Ahsoka season 2 has been approved, but there’s no word on when it will begin filming, let alone when it will release. It feels as though Lucasfilm has turned its attention back towards the big screen.

That’s probably for the best. In truth, the Star Wars Disney+ TV shows need something of a shot in the arm, something to reinvigorate interest in them and draw in fresh viewership. A movie is always going to be aimed at a far bigger audience than a TV show, meaning The Mandalorian & Grogu has an outsize chance of positively impacting the entire brand. Assuming the story is told well, there’ll be intense interest in rewatching past seasons, and new viewers will log into Disney+ too. Well-handled, carefully-positioned spinoffs can flourish after a box office hit.

Source: Luminate Data