Kevin Costner’s highly anticipated new Western movie franchise Horizon: An American Saga may already be doomed. Despite earning a positive audience score of 71% on Rotten Tomatoes, critics have been mixed on Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1, which was released in theaters on June 28, 2024. In roughly two weeks since its wide release, Horizon has earned roughly $24 million worldwide against its reported budget of $100 million, 38% of which was self-funded by Costner. This may spell trouble for a franchise that’s anticipated to be extended into a four-part movie series.

Costner’s vision for his Horizon franchise has always been ambitious but he had been willing to place a big bet on himself in his first directorial effort since 2003’s Open Range. The heavy 3-hour 1-minute runtime of Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 may have provided one of the strongest cases for audiences to wait until the film becomes available to rent and purchase at home on July 15. Still, the disappointing opening weekend box office of the first Horizon installment is undeniably concerning after its weak $11 million start and sets up a potential disaster for the upcoming second chapter set to be released on August 16, 2024.

Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1’s Box Office Is Not Improving

Horizon already has a set VOD release date to help stop the bleeding

Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 had a 50% drop in its worldwide box office on its second weekend. While this alone isn’t bad for a big budget movie, it still needed a less significant decrease to have any chance of saving the film’s box office performance. Typically, disappointing box office numbers of this caliber would quickly dispel any immediate notions of an impending sequel. However, considering that Costner has already produced, funded, and set a release date for Horizon’s sequel, it creates an incredibly unusual circumstance for him and his once-promising franchise.

The lackluster box office performance of Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 isn’t aided by its mixed reviews and 48% Rotten Tomatoes critic score. Richard Brody of The New Yorker writes in his review, “The three-hour Western, the first installment of a planned tetralogy, rushes through its many stories and straight past American history.” Brian Lowry of CNN.com writes, “Nobody has done more to keep the western flame kindling on the big screen than Kevin Costner, but the audacity of his latest rodeo feels like overreach, if not outright folly.” Many critics agree the film did not live up to its hype.

Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 2’s Imminent Release Is A Problem

There seems to be very little momentum heading into Chapter 2’s August release

The unfortunate truth that Costner must face is that the back-to-back release of his first two Horizon films in the same summer may turn out to work against the franchise’s prosperity. It’s pretty clear that there’s little immediate interest in the first movie based on the box office as it currently stands, so it’s not exactly plausible to think there would be a sudden increase in interest for the first Horizon when the second film comes out roughly a month from now. Now that the first Horizon is headed for a swift VOD release, it may be the lifeline that the franchise needs in order to draw fans to theaters in August.

Like many new releases nowadays, box office and immediate VOD at-home revenue can combine to paint a better picture of the otherwise disappointing theatrical performance. Additionally, Costner’s fans have likely gotten quite used to watching him in the comfort of their homes on Yellowstone over the past few years and may actually prefer to wait for the Horizon films to become available on their televisions rather than flock to a movie theater. Unfortunately, it’s too soon to know whether Horizon will become the successful franchise it was promised to be, but its VOD numbers need to give it a huge spike.

Horizon 3 & 4 Look Even Less Likely To Happen Now

Horizon 1 & 2 must be profitable for 3 & 4 to happen

Costner still certainly has a lot of influence over the future of his Horizon franchise, but at the end of the day, it will come down to whether or not these films will become profitable. Costner struggled to attain financing for the first two films and had to put a whole lot of money up to make his passion project realized on the big screen. The question is, who is going to jump aboard now to fund Costner’s anticipated sequels after the flop of its very first installment, especially in this increasingly timid Hollywood atmosphere? Costner may find a way to keep churning out his Horizon films but it may cost him more than it’s worth.