Kevin Costner’s upcoming Western epic Horizon: An American Saga already has a major problem to contend with, and the movie hasn’t even been released yet. Horizon has been a controversial project for Costner since it was first announced. Costner left his role in Yellowstone about the same time he began working on Horizon, and the exact circumstances of his departure and how it related to his new Western project remain unclear. That was the first problem Horizon ran into, but it was hardly the last, and the newest issue it’s facing could prove to be its biggest.

Horizon has been planned as a four-part Western epic, and the first two movies have already completed production. The first is set to release on June 28, with Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 set to release in August. Those release dates are confirmed, but the rest of the franchise isn’t as certain. A new development ahead of Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1‘s release could pose a huge problem to the rest of the saga.

Horizon’s Box Office Projections Create A Problem For The Planned Third Movie

It already seems Costner’s new franchise could struggle early on. An early report of Horizon‘s box office potential has already suggested that the first movie could struggle to earn a profit. That report claimed that awareness and interest in Horizon have decreased since the film was first announced, and that the $17 million opening weekend it was once projected to secure is now at just $12 million. The first two parts have a budget of $100 million, and Costner has spent $38 million of his own money on Horizon already, so such a low opening weekend prediction is a serious concern.

That problem is only made bigger by the fact that Costner has already planned out four films for the franchise. If the first chapter of the saga is struggling this much, it paints a very grim picture for the next three movies. Horizon Chapter 2 has already finished production and has a set release date, but Chapter 3 is in a much less secure situation.

Horizon 3 Has Started Filming, But May Not Happen

Horizon Chapter 3 has already begun filming, but it still might not be finished. Costner told Deadline in May that he planned to begin filming even before he had secured funding for the full project, and it’s very possible the movie still doesn’t have full funding. That puts Chapter 3 in a very precarious position, one that could be entirely dependent upon the success, or failure, of the first two installments. If they fail to turn a profit at the box office, it’s doubtful Costner would be able to find the rest of the funding needed, and Horizon Chapter 3 could be doomed.

Horizon 3 Not Happening Risks Hurting The First Two Movies

If Horizon does fail to perform at the box office, it wouldn’t just hurt Horizon 3, it would also take a toll on the first two installments of the saga. Horizon has always been planned as a four-part saga. That means that many of the concepts, characters, and plot points introduced in Horizon chapters 1 and 2 won’t be resolved in the movies themselves, and those conclusions would instead be saved for chapters 3 and 4. If the second half of the saga gets canceled, the viewers who did enjoy the first half will be left with no conclusion to the story.

Additionally, because Horizon Chapter 3 and Chapter 4 might not happen, that also means many viewers will go in knowing that there’s a real chance they’re about to watch a movie with no ending. Even if they don’t fail to perform at the box office, just the threat of not seeing the end of the saga could be enough to drive viewers away. There’s a real risk of Horizon‘s potential failure becoming a vicious cycle that harms every chapter in the series.

The challenges Horizon is already facing are a real shame, especially considering some recent developments. Costner’s mission with Horizon has frequently been compared to Francis Ford Coppola’s vision for Megalopolis, his self-funded passion project. Megalopolis‘ reviews are already divided, and in combination with Horizon‘s worries, it marks two notable products of a single person’s creative vision that are at risk. If they were both to fail, it could be a major blow to truly original and passionate movies in the future. Kevin Costner is taking a massive risk with Horizon: An American Saga, and hopefully his gamble pays off.