The Mandalorian & Grogu could repeat a costly mistake made by Disney for the last box office bomb in the Star Wars franchise. As an upcoming Star Wars movie, The Mandalorian & Grogu faces a fair amount of pressure. The film will be the first to release in theaters since 2019’s Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, tasked with restoring the franchise’s big-screen dominance all while setting up upcoming Star Wars TV shows.

Regardless of these pressures, The Mandalorian & Grogu is highly anticipated as not only the continuation of Star Wars’ New Republic timeline but also the next theatrical project on Lucasfilm’s extensive slate. The film has been confirmed for release in May 2026, ending what will be a seven-year hiatus for the Star Wars franchise in theaters. However, The Mandalorian & Grogu risks repeating a mistake that was made by Disney’s $393 million box office bomb in the franchise.

The Last Disney Star Wars Movie To Release In May… Was Solo

The Mandalorian & Grogu Will Hope To Avoid Solo’s Box Office Woes

With The Mandalorian & Grogu, Disney is getting its wish of restoring Star Wars as a summer blockbuster franchise. That said, Solo: A Star Wars Story was thought to be the same. Regardless, Solo flopped at the box office by earning only $393 million worldwide against an admittedly inflated $300+ million budget. This bodes ill for The Mandalorian & Grogu as it is clear Star Wars has laid claim to a Christmas release window since 2015. All three sequel movies were released in December, with each installment earning north of $1 billion worldwide.

Although the Star Wars original and prequel trilogy films were released in the summer, the gap between them and the sequels – alongside the latter films’ successes – has solidified the franchise as a holiday blockbuster. Switching back to May for Solo proved this, with the film failing against huge opposition such as the MCU in its prime with Avengers: Infinity War. Franchises of this ilk have now become more typical summer blockbusters than Star Wars, with The Mandalorian & Grogu facing an uphill battle against Avengers: The Kang Dynasty in May 2026.

Solo went up against these behemoth franchises and did not succeed, despite Star Wars’ own size. While this could be due to the negative discourse around Solo‘s extensive rewrites, reshoots, and the overall needlessness of a Han Solo story, it bombed nonetheless. One would think that Disney would not wish to repeat this mistake, though The Mandalorian & Grogu‘s release date proves the studio is giving it one last shot.

The Mandalorian & Grogu Risks Repeating Another Solo Mistake

Another Big Factor In Solo’s Failure Could Apply To The Mandalorian & Grogu

As alluded to, it is clear Disney wishes to return Star Wars to summer box office prominence. Despite this truth, the studio has still not lost sight of its previous success stories. Alongside the May 22, 2026, release date that has been reserved by Lucasfilm, the Disney subsidiary also reserved December 18, 2026, and December 17, 2027, for two other theatrical releases. This is undoubtedly a good sign that Disney is aware of the success a holiday release can bring Star Wars films, though it raises another issue that plagued Solo: A Star Wars Story in 2018.

Solo released in May 2018, only five months after Star Wars: The Last Jedi. Star Wars has never been a franchise like the MCU or the DCU in which multiple releases in a single year are sustainable or even desired. Solo proved this by underperforming shortly after Episode VIII was released. The Mandalorian & Grogu will face a similar situation given that another Star Wars film is set to be released seven months later. The better option would be to attach The Mandalorian & Grogu to December 2026 and push the other two projects back by a year to avoid oversaturation.

Don’t Write Off The Mandalorian & Grogu Just Yet

The 2026 Film May Still Avoid Solo’s Mistakes

Although each of these potential problems is worrying, it is worth noting that The Mandalorian & Grogu has some distinct advantages over Solo. The production of Solo was endlessly complicated, with original directors Phil Lord and Christopher Miller being fired near the end of principal photography. The duo had already shot more than three-quarters of the film, leading to a drastic overhaul once a new director was brought on board. Ron Howard was hired to finish the film after a brief hiatus to rework aspects of Lawrence Kasdan’s script that Lord and Miller did not follow as much as was expected.

Eventually, Solo‘s production restarted. By the end of filming, it was reported that Howard had reshot over 70% of the film. These issues alone were enough to somewhat sour the anticipation of Solo: A Star Wars Story, which undoubtedly affected the box office. However, what negatively impacted the film’s earnings even more so than online discourse was the sheer cost of such extensive reshoots. By the end of production, Solo had cost Lucasfilm and Disney as much as $330 million.

This marks Solo as one of the most expensive movies ever made and meant that the film would have needed to earn at least $600 million to begin turning a profit for Disney. The Mandalorian & Grogu, on the other hand, is unlikely to have these setbacks. Writer-director Jon Favreau has a firm grip on the franchise and already has a good working relationship with Lucasfilm. This will mean reshoots, rewrites, and changes to the overwhelming level of Solo will not be necessary, giving The Mandalorian & Grogu a better chance to re-establish Star Wars as a summer blockbuster franchise.