The Fall Guy‘s opening weekend box office numbers make for disappointing reading, but whether the film will be a complete box office bomb remains to be seen. The Fall Guy has been one of the more anticipated films of 2024’s early-summer movie season since its premiere at SXSW. This is largely attributed to the film’s many inviting aspects, from The Fall Guy‘s fantastic cast and its refreshing action-comedy-romance tone to the incredibly dangerous and thus impressive stunts on display.

Combined with a compelling mystery story that resolves satisfyingly in The Fall Guy‘s ending, the movie had all the ingredients it needed to be a surefire box office hit. This is without mentioning The Fall Guy‘s appealing soundtrack, which should have only further enabled the film to haul in an impressive opening weekend box office total. However, despite all of these aspects and the movie’s positive reviews, The Fall Guy‘s opening weekend total was a disappointment, leading many to question whether the film would end its theatrical run as a bomb at the box office.

How Much The Fall Guy Made At The Box Office In Its Opening Weekend

The Fall Guy’s Opening Weekend Box Office Was Below Expectations

As the first movie of the summer season, all eyes were on The Fall Guy to perform well. Given that it sports a well-matched duo of huge stars and the other aforementioned benefits, The Fall Guy‘s below-par opening weekend is more than disappointing. Both in domestic territories and worldwide markets, The Fall Guy‘s opening weekend was underwhelming, primarily due to the excitement that was placed on the film by critics before its release. With Box Office Mojo confirming the exact numbers for The Fall Guy‘s opening weekend, it is difficult to see a way back for the Ryan Gosling-led movie.

Why The Fall Guy’s Box Office Opened Below Expectations

Several Factors Contributed To The Fall Guy’s Below-Par Opening Weekend

When exploring why The Fall Guy‘s opening weekend was disappointing, there are several factors at play. For one, The Fall Guy is – mostly – a non-IP movie. Although it is based on the 1980s TV show of the same name, this was not exactly common knowledge for general moviegoers. Even if it was, The Fall Guy was not the most popular of TV shows, meaning its connection to 2024’s The Fall Guy was not expected to overly impact box office performance as a much bigger franchise link would.

The second reason why The Fall Guy‘s disappointing opening weekend is the overall lack of box office dominance that has affected Hollywood of late. Most big blockbusters have been struggling to make huge profits in recent years, which in and of itself is a problem that has many contributing factors. Firstly, blockbuster movies have soaring budgets that are simply not feasible anymore. The Fall Guy is no different, with a budget that would not have been attributed to a non-IP action movie in the 2000s or 2010s.

The box office has been poor for similar movies recently because of the switch to video-on-demand and streaming since the COVID-19 pandemic. The closing of theaters led most studios to drastically decrease the wait time between a film leaving theaters and its release on streaming platforms or VoD. As such, movies in 2024 need to be must-see’s on the big screen or audiences will simply wait for their release on streaming a few weeks later. Movies like Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire or Dune: Part Two – both also connected to huge IPs – are two examples of this.

The argument can also be made that The Fall Guy relied too heavily on its leads, Emily Blunt and Ryan Gosling, to promote the film. The trailers highlighted these leads to a massive extent, potentially alienating audiences who desired to be made aware of The Fall Guy‘s stunt-heavy plot and love-letter nature to stunt teams in Hollywood. Finally, there are bigger movies – such as Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes and Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga – releasing in May, meaning audience members who only visit theaters one or two times a month will prioritize them over The Fall Guy.

Why The Fall Guy’s Box Office Hurts To See

The Clamor For Original Movies Makes The Fall Guy’s Failure Hurt More

Regardless of each of these reasons being valid explanations for The Fall Guy‘s lower-than-expected opening weekend, the result is still a painful one. The primary reason for this stems from the overall clamor for original movies in Hollywood of late. With major franchises like Star Wars and DC taking an extended hiatus from theatrical releases and formerly successful IPs like the MCU not having the same box office draw, audiences have long-desired original filmmaking. The Fall Guy offers exactly this, yet is set to be a box office bomb if its opening weekend is anything to go by.

As alluded to, there are several factors contributing to The Fall Guy‘s disappointing opening weekend at the box office. As such, it is not the failure of moviegoers that The Fall Guy is struggling to succeed. That said, it is still indicative of where the movie industry as a whole is in 2024. Audiences want original movies, yet when such films come around, they are not being made in a smart, cost-effective way that bucks the recent streaming/VoD trends of Hollywood so that they can succeed, potentially harming the prospective release of The Fall Guy 2.

Can The Fall Guy Avoid Being A Box Office Bomb?

The Fall Guy Is Unlikely To Be A True Success At The End Of Its Box Office Run

The burning question after The Fall Guy‘s opening weekend is whether it can avoid being a complete box office failure. Unfortunately, the odds are slim that The Fall Guy will see an upturn in performance. At best, it seems The Fall Guy could earn enough to break even. The rule of thumb for Hollywood movies is that earning double the production budget will allow them to break even. Concerning The Fall Guy, it cost a reported $125-$150 million. Given the uncertain cost of the film, many trade publications – including Variety and THR – list the production budget at $130 million.

With this number in mind, The Fall Guy likely needs to earn around $260 million to recoup its cost when factoring in marketing and distribution fees. If the film was to begin earning a profit, The Fall Guy would likely need to earn a worldwide total north of $335 million. As alluded to, this seems increasingly unlikely. While the word of mouth from The Fall Guy‘s positive reviews and audience CinemaScore is positive, the other movies coming out in May could hurt the film’s chances of having long legs at the box office.

Only a week after The Fall Guy‘s release date of May 3, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes releases on May 10. This means that, despite positive word of mouth potentially bolstering The Fall Guy‘s second weekend, a lot of potential viewers will be drawn toward the bigger franchise. If Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes performs well commercially, The Fall Guy‘s third weekend will be filled with stiff competition. On May 24, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga releases in theaters, providing The Fall Guy with another giant movie to contend with.

This is not to mention other big movies releasing either said of Furiosa, such as Ryan Reynolds’ IF, Pixar’s Inside Out 2, and Bad Boys: Ride or Die. With such competition facing The Fall Guy over the next six weeks, the film’s opening weekend needed to be a bigger success than it was to give the film hope of turning a profit. Unfortunately, The Fall Guy‘s fantastic cast, great action, fun vibe, and original story were not enough to see it succeed, though most moviegoers will be happy to be proved wrong should its fortunes begin to, ironically, rise.